Economy & Market

In the Long Run, we are all dead

Published

8 years ago

November 30, 2016

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The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past, the ocean is flat again. This is what the eminent economist John Maynard Keynes had said which provides a context to the famous, oft-quoted and mostly misunderstood phrase, ?In the long run, we are all dead?. According to Prof Simon Taylor of the Cambridge University, and I quote him, Keynes is not arguing that we should recklessly enjoy the present and let the future go hang. Keynes was exasperated with the view of mainstream economists that the economy is an equilibrium system which will eventually return to a point of balance…

To me, this famous phrase stands for the classic aversion of people in power from articulating quantified goals for the medium term or even foreseeable long term, and the propensity of promising delivery of vague motherhood stuff in very very long term, which is meaningless, because by then, symbolically, we are all dead ? well, at least dead from waiting interminably. This tendency enables the leaders with authority, to conveniently avoid accountability to the unquestioning masses down the line. It is my belief that Keynes attacks this culture of abstract deliverables in the undefined long term; he abhors this absolute lack of accountability.

Yes, our context is demonetization. Cement industry, like most other sectors, is already affected by this huge government intervention. Dispatches have dwindled all over the country, and analysts are predicting a drop of 20 to 30 per cent in volumes in the current quarter. The big question is, what is going to happen after that. Housing and Real Estate are sectors where cash transactions have been traditionally predominant, and these are major drivers of cement demand. We also happen to know that two thirds of cement consumption is into individual house builder segment which likes to pay for its cement bags mostly in cash. All this knowledge makes us suspicious about the health of cement demand going forward, and needless to say, the stock market is equally skeptical as we see the cement stocks have been hammered down by 15 to 20 per cent So, obviously there is considerable short and medium term pain to be endured by the cement sector.

Back to Keynes now. We agree to endure short term pain, provided we are convinced about the long term gains in the foreseeable future, and if the long term gains are well-articulated and quantified, and someone is held accountable for delivering those gains. Otherwise, in the long run, we are all dead (meaning all this becomes irrelevant today). Have you noticed that no one has said anything so far about quantified long term gains of demonetization, barring mouthing generalities, while the short term pains are already a reality.

Let us look at some numbers now. A paltry 6 to 8 per cent of the black wealth is held as cash, the rest being held in the form of gold, forex, property and other offshore assets, according to statistics released from IT data. An even more paltry 0.023 per cent of cash in circulation is suspected to be counterfeit, according to government- commissioned studies. How much of this 6 per cent of black economy can we trap through this demonetization? I suspect a very insignificant fraction. Even if, optimistically speaking, we can isolate 20 per cent of this black cash, it will mean a negligible 1 per cent of our black wealth! According to the social media, there are at least 14 different well-publicized methods of converting black money into white and depositing the same into bonafide bank accounts through loopholes left wide open by the government. Out of 14 lakh crore of demonetized currency notes, 11 lakh crore would be in circulation, the rest being in the banking system at any given point of time. Of this, as we go to press, upwards of 7-8 lakh crores have been already safely deposited into banks, and it is likely that bulk of the remaining notes will come into the banks, all as white money, by the 30th December deadline. If that were to happen, one can well judge the efficacy of this drive, at least on the count of removing black money, which happens to be the?"raison d’etre"of this exercise. So much for the much-touted long term gains.

Be that as it may, let us wish that the cement industry bounces back soonest.

Concrete

15th Cement EXPO: A Step Forward in Cement Innovation

Published

3 weeks ago

January 17, 2025

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Mumbai

Following the immense success of the 14th Cement EXPO, held on December 14-15, 2023, at the Manekshaw Centre, New Delhi, the next edition of this premier event is set to take place in March 2025. The 15th Cement EXPO will be hosted at Yashobhoomi, Delhi, on 12th and 13th November 2025.

Meanwhile, the Cement Expo Forum 2025 is scheduled for 5th and 6th March 2025 at Taj Krishna in Hyderabad. This exciting 3-in-1 event, organised by FIRST Construction Council (FCC) and Indian Cement Review (ICR), will bring together industry leaders, innovators, and stakeholders to discuss the future of the cement sector.

Building on the Success of the 14th Cement EXPO

The 14th Cement EXPO was widely praised for its strong participation, attracting over 1,500 senior managers and decision-makers from across the cement industry. The event was inaugurated by Dr. Vibha Dhawan, Director General of TERI, and Ali Emir Adiguzel, Founder and Director of the World Cement Association, alongside Pratap Padode, Founder of FIRST Construction Council (FCC). The two-tiered exhibition space featured cutting-edge products and innovations from top companies within the cement industry’s supply chain.

The event also garnered significant support from key government bodies, including the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government e-Marketplace (GeM), and the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India (GoI).

Recognition and Excellence in the Cement Industry

The 7th Indian Cement Review Awards celebrated excellence by presenting awards to 11 companies in various categories, recognising their contributions to growth and innovation within the industry. Notably, Parth Jindal, Managing Director of JSW Cement, was honoured with the prestigious Indian Cement Review – Person of the Year Award 2023. Meanwhile, Vinita Singhania, Vice Chairman and Managing Director of JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd, received the Lifetime Achievement Award for her outstanding leadership and contributions to the sector.

A Vision for Sustainability

With the theme of “Driving Sustainability Through Technology,” the 9th Indian Cement Review Conference hosted thought-provoking discussions and presentations, highlighting the industry’s commitment to adopting innovative, sustainable practices. The conference served as a platform for dialogue on the latest technological advancements aimed at transforming the cement sector, addressing key challenges, and fostering growth.

What to Expect from Cement EXPO 2025

The 15th Cement EXPO, along with the 10th Indian Cement Review Conference and the 8th Indian Cement Review Awards, is set to be even bigger and more impactful than the 2023 edition. With an expanded exhibition space, greater participation, and more in-depth discussions, the 2025 event will continue to drive the industry forward. This 3-in-1 event promises to be a pivotal moment in the ongoing transformation of the cement sector.

As the industry evolves, the 15th Cement EXPO 2025 will serve as a crucial platform for showcasing innovations, discussing emerging trends, and forging new partnerships to shape the future of cement and construction.

For more details:

Cement Expo Forum 2025: https://cementexpo.in/forum

15^th Cement Expo 2025: https://cementexpo.in/

FOR CONFERENCE SPONSORSHIPS

Sheetal Talreja

Mob: +91 842 2874 030

Email: sheetal@IndianCementReview.com

FOR EXHIBITION/SPONSORSHIPS

Sujoy Gomes

Mob: +91 865 7795 881

Email: Sujoy.g@ASAPPinfoGlobal.com

FOR SPONSORSHIPS

Ratan Rajbhar

Mob: +91 842 2874 021

Email: ratan.r@ASAPPinfoGlobal.com

Concrete

Construction sector growth slows to 8-10% for FY2025: ICRA

Published

3 weeks ago

January 15, 2025

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The revenue growth for construction companies in FY2025 is projected at 8-10 per cent, down from the earlier estimate of 12-15 per cent, according to ICRA. This marks the slowest growth in three years, driven by factors such as the Model Code of Conduct in Q1, prolonged monsoons, and milestone-based billing in Q2, particularly affecting road-focused players.
ICRA’s analysis of 19 companies with a combined turnover of Rs.1.28 trillion in FY2024 shows modest revenue growth of 1.5 per cent YoY in H1 FY2025. While execution is expected to improve in H2, FY2025 growth remains below the historical CAGR of ~15 per cent (FY2018-FY2024).
Order inflows in urban transport, water and sewage projects are healthy, but road-focused entities face challenges due to muted inflows and high competition. Operating margins are projected to remain range-bound at 10.5-11 per cent, with debt levels rising to manage working capital needs, though debt coverage metrics remain stable.

Concrete

SANY India expands Pune factory to boost production capacity

Published

3 weeks ago

January 15, 2025

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SANY India inaugurated a cutting-edge factory expansion at its 90-acre Pune facility, elevating its production capacity to over 14,000 units annually, alongside a robust fabrication capacity of 100,000 metric tonnes.

The advanced facility reinforces SANY’s commitment to ‘Make in India’ by enhancing localised manufacturing and supporting global exports. Chairman Xiang Wenbo highlighted the strategic importance of India as a global hub, while Vice Chairman Deepak Garg emphasised the expansion’s role in driving innovation and infrastructure development. This investment enhances efficiency, reduces timelines, and strengthens SANY’s leadership in the construction equipment sector.