Economy & Market
In the Long Run, we are all dead
Published
8 years agoon
By
adminThe long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is past, the ocean is flat again. This is what the eminent economist John Maynard Keynes had said which provides a context to the famous, oft-quoted and mostly misunderstood phrase, ?In the long run, we are all dead?. According to Prof Simon Taylor of the Cambridge University, and I quote him, Keynes is not arguing that we should recklessly enjoy the present and let the future go hang. Keynes was exasperated with the view of mainstream economists that the economy is an equilibrium system which will eventually return to a point of balance…
To me, this famous phrase stands for the classic aversion of people in power from articulating quantified goals for the medium term or even foreseeable long term, and the propensity of promising delivery of vague motherhood stuff in very very long term, which is meaningless, because by then, symbolically, we are all dead ? well, at least dead from waiting interminably. This tendency enables the leaders with authority, to conveniently avoid accountability to the unquestioning masses down the line. It is my belief that Keynes attacks this culture of abstract deliverables in the undefined long term; he abhors this absolute lack of accountability.
Yes, our context is demonetization. Cement industry, like most other sectors, is already affected by this huge government intervention. Dispatches have dwindled all over the country, and analysts are predicting a drop of 20 to 30 per cent in volumes in the current quarter. The big question is, what is going to happen after that. Housing and Real Estate are sectors where cash transactions have been traditionally predominant, and these are major drivers of cement demand. We also happen to know that two thirds of cement consumption is into individual house builder segment which likes to pay for its cement bags mostly in cash. All this knowledge makes us suspicious about the health of cement demand going forward, and needless to say, the stock market is equally skeptical as we see the cement stocks have been hammered down by 15 to 20 per cent So, obviously there is considerable short and medium term pain to be endured by the cement sector.
Back to Keynes now. We agree to endure short term pain, provided we are convinced about the long term gains in the foreseeable future, and if the long term gains are well-articulated and quantified, and someone is held accountable for delivering those gains. Otherwise, in the long run, we are all dead (meaning all this becomes irrelevant today). Have you noticed that no one has said anything so far about quantified long term gains of demonetization, barring mouthing generalities, while the short term pains are already a reality.
Let us look at some numbers now. A paltry 6 to 8 per cent of the black wealth is held as cash, the rest being held in the form of gold, forex, property and other offshore assets, according to statistics released from IT data. An even more paltry 0.023 per cent of cash in circulation is suspected to be counterfeit, according to government- commissioned studies. How much of this 6 per cent of black economy can we trap through this demonetization? I suspect a very insignificant fraction. Even if, optimistically speaking, we can isolate 20 per cent of this black cash, it will mean a negligible 1 per cent of our black wealth! According to the social media, there are at least 14 different well-publicized methods of converting black money into white and depositing the same into bonafide bank accounts through loopholes left wide open by the government. Out of 14 lakh crore of demonetized currency notes, 11 lakh crore would be in circulation, the rest being in the banking system at any given point of time. Of this, as we go to press, upwards of 7-8 lakh crores have been already safely deposited into banks, and it is likely that bulk of the remaining notes will come into the banks, all as white money, by the 30th December deadline. If that were to happen, one can well judge the efficacy of this drive, at least on the count of removing black money, which happens to be the?"raison d’etre"of this exercise. So much for the much-touted long term gains.
Be that as it may, let us wish that the cement industry bounces back soonest.
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As part of the 10th India Construction Festival, the RAHSTA Awards recognised outstanding contributions to the road construction industry.
On October 10, 2024, the RAHSTA Awards were held at the Jio Convention Centre in Mumbai, forming a significant part of the 10th India Construction Festival. This esteemed event serves as a pivotal platform for recognising and honouring outstanding contributions in the road construction industry, particularly those that prioritise sustainability, innovation and excellence.
RAHSTA, an acronym for ‘Roads and Highways Sustainable Technologies & Advancement’, has become synonymous with the promotion of advancements in road construction equipment and technologies. Organised by the FIRST Construction Council, the awards seek to highlight the importance of sustainable practices in infrastructure development and celebrate those organisations that lead the way in this critical area.
At the event, Pratap Padode, Founder, FIRST Construction Council, underscored the importance of skilling the workforce in the construction sector. He pointed out that construction is India’s second-largest employer, with the potential to reach 100 million jobs by 2030. However, he emphasised that a significant portion of this workforce remains unskilled, with 80 per cent of the 70 million workers lacking adequate training.
“To bridge this skill gap, we must incorporate practical orientation in engineering and management courses,” Padode urged. He highlighted the Indian Government’s initiative to onboard 1 crore interns through CSR funding over five years, encouraging construction companies to participate actively
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The RAHSTA Awards recognised seven outstanding contributions to the road construction sector, celebrating innovations that drive sustainability and efficiency:
- Award for Highest Standards of Excellence in Road Engineering & Construction: Patel Infrastructure
- Award for Excellence in Bridge Engineering: L&T Construction, DIAL Phase 3A Project
- Best Road Financier Award: HDFC Bank
- Award for Best Use of Waste Material Recycling in Road Construction: Tata Steel
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- Award for Excellence in Project Management: Haryana Rural Road Infrastructure Development Agency
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- CC Precast Solutions
Indeed, the RAHSTA Awards 2024 were more than just a ceremony; they represented a vital call to action for the road construction sector in India. By highlighting the importance of sustainability and technological advancement, the awards inspired industry stakeholders to strive for excellence
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As the event concluded, it left attendees with a renewed sense of purpose and a collective vision for a more sustainable and efficient future in infrastructure development. The RAHSTA Awards stand as a testament to the possibilities that lie ahead when industry leaders come together to embrace change and foster growth.
The titans of the construction equipment industry were honoured at the 12th BKT Equipment India Awards 2024.
On October 10, 2024, Mumbai played host to the much-anticipated 12th BKT Equipment India Awards 2024, an event that recognised and celebrated the outstanding achievements within the construction equipment sector. The grand ceremony took place at Jio Convention Centre and was among the highlights of the India Construction Festival, which gathered industry leaders, manufacturers and financiers from across the nation to honour innovation and excellence in this vital sector.
The inaugural addresses set a reflective tone for the evening, emphasising the importance of collaboration and information sharing within the industry. In his opening speech, Pratap Padode, Founder, First Construction Council, remarked, “At Equipment India, we have always tried to enhance the standard of the industry. During this 17th year of our existence, we still find that companies are trying to hide behind a veil as far as the disclosure of factual data is concerned.” His emphasis on transparency resonated with the audience, highlighting the critical need for the construction equipment sector to adopt best practices for data sharing, akin to those seen in the automobile industry.
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Winners of the 12th BKT Equipment India Awards
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– Sanjay Koul, President- India and South East Asia and Managing Director, Timken India
Concrete
22nd CONSTRUCTION WORLD Global Awards Excellence Revisited!
Published
4 weeks agoon
November 23, 2024By
RoshnaAt the 22nd CONSTRUCTION WORLD Global Awards, over 50 awards in 21categories were presented to industry stalwarts.
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Benchmarked to global standards
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Special bytes
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“I am thrilled to accept this award on behalf of Century Ply,” said Anup Mangaserri, Chief Executive Officer – Laminates, Century Plyboards India.
“It’s an honour to be recognised and I extend my heartfelt thanks.”
“Tata Consulting Engineers has made significant strides in nation-building projects in India and
high-impact engineering efforts abroad,” said BR Parthasarathy, Senior Vice President and Head – Infrastructure Cluster, Tata Consulting Engineers (TCE), sharing his pride in receiving the ENR Award. “This recognition underscores our global capabilities and we are honoured to be part of this journey.”
For his part, Sarat Chandak, CEO, H&R Johnson, said, “We are truly delighted to receive this award as the most admired brand in the construction world. This recognition reflects the dedication and hard work of the brand over its six-year journey in India. Thank you for acknowledging our efforts.”
And Sandeep Desai, Executive Director, and Ananta Rayaprolu, Director, Afcons Infrastructure, noted, “This is a proud moment for the entire Afcons team to have this particular trophy and prestigious award. Afcons has always been at the forefront of extreme engineering, and we are really happy for this acknowledgment, which motivates us to continue pushing the boundaries of innovation.”
Joining the chorus of gratitude, Manish Kumar, Executive Vice President, ITD Cementation, stated, “It is an incredible honour to receive this award and to be here for this event, which is very well organised. Being recognised among the best of our peers in the industry is truly a privilege. I accept this on behalf of my team and company and we are deeply grateful for this recognition.”
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This collection of leaders from different sectors was a showcase of the diversity and excellence celebrated by these prestigious awards, marking significant milestones in their respective industries.
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An event to remember Another highlight of the event was the launch of Pratap Padode’s book, Tarmac to Towers – India’s Infrastructure Story.
Indeed, in keeping with tradition, the annual CWGA Awards ceremony was a memorable celebration of architectural achievements and a platform for dialogue on critical issues affecting the construction industry.