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Sustainable re-rating ahead?

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Cement stocks have seen their valuations rerate at an unprecedented pace in the past 6 months or so, driven by heightened expectations of demand growth.

Large caps are trading at multiple year high valuations, with several mid-caps closing in the gap too. Most importantly, valuation hierarchy has flipped with a cost leader (Shree Cement) now at the top of the band. Given an increasing proportion of non-trade sales, higher RMC penetration and bulk (i.e., not bag) cement sales, the premium pricing of brand leaders will erode gradually. Historically, the erosion of pricing premium has coincided with periods of fast demand growth (implying sudden utilisation surges). Given the low entry barriers in to the cement industry and relatively slow expansion plans of pan-India companies (Holcim/Lafarge mainly), market share for erstwhile dominant players is shrinking.

Given this scenario, single/two region cost leaders with better logistics will trump multi-region cost-laggards (op-ex and capex). Sharper growth in cement consumption will suit nimbler companies (faster execution and turnaround) better than slower ones, and will also make them better equipped to navigate periods of weak demand. These companies will see their valuations rerate substantially. The future belongs to the companies with proven operational cost leaders, who can compete with pan India players on costs. Here is a review on two of the market leaders at the moment.

Orient Cement
Orient Cement (Orient) is catching up with the industry leaders in South. It already runs one of the most efficient operations in the country (LTM operating costs at Rs 2,945/t vs Rs 3,400-3,800 for peers ex-Shree). From its current base in Devapur (Telangana, 3 mTPA) and Jalgaon (Maharashtra 2 mTPA), the company is expanding by adding 3 mTPA cement capacity at Gulbarga (Karnataka). At a total project cost of ~Rs 17bn (~US$95/t) and a guided commissioning by 1QFY16 (within 24 months from ordering), the upcoming plant is expected to set a new benchmark in greenfield project execution.

The next key challenge before the company is to replicate its best-in-class current operations at the new plant. Two solid advantages: low landed cost of coal (due to proximity to the Singareni Collieries) and fly ash (from Ramagundam TPP) are not replicable. However, savings may accrue due to newer, more efficient equipment (new kiln, VRMs instead of ball mill-roller press combination). Further, the catchment area of new plant would include higher priced markets of Karnataka. As a result, the new plant may be able to generate similar EBITDA/t as the existing operations. At 8 mTPA capacity, operations in two regions and established cost leadership, the valuations at US$81/t are still below peers like Ramco, which trades at US$140/t.

Gulbarga booster
With the Devapur operations nearly maxed out at current volumes, Gulbarga will drive the next phase of volume growth (FY14-17 CAGR: 13 per cent). While blended profitability will be dragged down to some extent due to non-replication of current advantages, we reckon EBITDA/t to be a healthy Rs 1,100/t in FY17. EBITDA/PAT can grow by a healthy 44 to 40 per cent CAGR over the same period. Debt/EBITDA will be a healthy 2.7x upon commissioning of the Gulbarga.

Key investment arguments

  • Orient Cement?s current operations out Devapur (AP) and Jalgaon (Maharashtra) are best-in-class, with industry leading costs (LTM operating costs at Rs 2,945/t).
  • Current profitability is driven by low energy cost (LTM Rs 940/t), which is in part driven by linkage coal available in close proximity of the plant (Singareni Collieries). Orient has linkages for its clinker lines from Singareni collieries (0.67 mT coal or ~78 per cent of consumption in FY14, including power plant requirement).
  • Freight costs remain extremely competitive (Rs 745/t, ex inter unit clinker transfer) as its primary target markets in Telangana and Maharashtra are at a very low lead distance (< 350 km). Including IUCL, the freight costs (~Rs1,000/t) are in line with other cement makers.
  • Ramagundam super TPP (2600 MW) is at a 60 km distance from Devapur, while Bhusaval power plant is situated at a distance of 20 km from Jalgaon GU. This ensures availability of fly ash with a low lead distance too.
  • The Chittapur (Gulbarga) 3 mTPA capacity (2 mTPA clinker) is being added for a capital cost of ~Rs 17.0bn, of which ~12bn will be funded through debt and remainder via internal accruals.
  • The new plant is expected to be more efficient vs the current operations due to single kiln operation (vs 3 at Devapur currently) and newer equipment. However, the advantages of low cost fuel (linkage coal at Devapur) and fly ash (Ramagundam TPP) will not be available and the company will have to ferry these ~400 km (from current sources to Gulbarga).
  • A mine life of 93 years based in ~300 mTPA reserves also allows the company further scope to expand the capacity at a later stage.
  • Sometime in FY16, Orient will be an 8 mTPA entity with operations in South, but with key target markets in the lucrative regions of Maharashtra.
  • Orient will have a net Debt/Equity of ~1.2x and net Debt/EBITDA (FY16E) of ~2.8x upon plant commissioning in June -15. This compares well with other cement companies undertaking a ~50 per cent expansion currently.

Sanghi Industries
Sanghi Industries (SNGI) operates a 3 mTPA clinker capacity (2.6 mTPA grinding) in Kutch, Gujarat. It has access to soft marine limestone spread over ~1,500 hectares (containing ~1 bnt of proven reserves). The operations are fully integrated with captive power (63 MW) and have the ability to use lignite in both kiln and CPP and a captive jetty within 1 km of the cement grinding plant. Its port terminals at Navlakhi (Rajkot) and Dharamtar (Maharashtra) are used to access their respective markets. The company also exports clinker from Kutch, opportunistically tapping the cement markets in Middle East and Africa.

SNGI?s profitability is driven by low cost raw material, essentially surface mined limestone. Proximity to lignite mines of GMDC, ability to import coal at its captive jetty and excess captive power allow it low energy costs. On the flipside, low blending (C:C ratio at 1.1 in FY14) and a very high proportion of road transport (given no option of railway) eat away large chunks of profitability. As a result, the company reports some of the highest P&F and selling costs in the industry.

The road forward
SNGI is investing in additional cement capacity (1 mTPA grinding unit) at the existing location, likely to be commissioned in FY16. Given the ample availability of fly ash in the vicinity and a gradual shift towards PPC, P&F costs can trend lower. Further, increasing focus on low cost coastal freight should lower freight, while accessing newer markets. In addition to existing terminals, SNGI is looking at setting up distribution capacity on the western coast and is acquiring vessels for transportation.

Key investment arguments

  • Installed clinker capacity (~3 mTPA) is enough to support volumes of up to 4.3 mTPA, theoretically. (Implied C:C ratio of 1.43).
  • However, given limited grinding capacity, SNGI has remained constrained in its volume output with a maximum cement production of 2.5 mTPA in FY08.
  • To address this mismatch, SNGI is adding a 1 mTPA GU at a cost of Rs 1bn (~US$ 17/t). The GU is being added at existing site, which is close to the captive jetty. Likely to be commissioned in FY16, the cement grinding capacity will provide SNGI with additional volumes at a low cost.
  • SNGI has not been able to capitalise on its coastal location and captive jetty, for domestic volumes.
  • The nearest railhead, Bhuj, is ~140 km from the plant, rendering rail transport infeasible.
  • The company is planning to purchase vessels for cement transport, and has earmarked a capex of Rs 1.0bn for the same. Vessels are expected to be delivered by 2HFY15 and will likely result in substantial freight cost savings.
  • SNGI sells primarily OPC, given low grinding/blending capacity and brand positioning. Of late the company has attempted to foray in to PPC manufacturing.

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Economy & Market

Impactful Branding

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Advertising or branding is never about driving sales. It’s about creating brand awareness and recall. It’s about conveying the core values of your brand to your consumers. In this context, why is branding important for cement companies? As far as the customers are concerned cement is simply cement. It is precisely for this reason that branding, marketing and advertising of cement becomes crucial. Since the customer is unable to differentiate between the shades of grey, the onus of creating this awareness is carried by the brands. That explains the heavy marketing budgets, celebrity-centric commercials, emotion-invoking taglines and campaigns enunciating the many benefits of their offerings.
Marketing strategies of cement companies have undergone gradual transformation owing to the change in consumer behaviour. While TV commercials are high on humour and emotions to establish a fast connect with the customer, social media campaigns are focussed more on capturing the consumer’s attention in an over-crowded virtual world. Branding for cement companies has become a holistic growth strategy with quantifiable results. This has made brands opt for a mix package of traditional and new-age tools, such as social media. However, the hero of every marketing communication is the message, which encapsulates the unique selling points of the product. That after all is crux of the matter here.
While cement companies are effectively using marketing tools to reach out to the consumers, they need to strengthen the four Cs of the branding process – Consumer, Cost, Communication and Convenience. Putting up the right message, at the right time and at the right place for the right kind of customer demographic is of utmost importance in the long run. It is precisely for this reason that regional players are likely to have an upper hand as they rely on local language and cultural references to drive home the point. But modern marketing and branding domain is exponentially growing and it would be an interesting exercise to tabulate and analyse its impact on branding for cement.

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Concrete

Indian cement industry is well known for its energy and natural resource efficiency

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Dr Hitesh Sukhwal, Deputy General Manager – Environment, Udaipur Cement Works Limited (UCWL) takes us through the multifaceted efforts that the company has undertaken to keep emissions in check with the use of alternative sources of energy and carbon capture technology.

Tell us about the policies of your organisation for the betterment of the environment.
Caring for people is one of the core values of our JK Lakshmi Cement Limited. We strongly believe that we all together can make a difference. In all our units, we have taken measures to reduce carbon footprint, emissions and minimise the use of natural resources. Climate change and sustainable development are major global concerns. As a responsible corporate, we are committed with and doing consistent effort small or big to preserve and enrich the environment in and around our area of operations.
As far as environmental policies are concerned, we are committed to comply with all applicable laws, standards and regulations of regulatory bodies pertaining to the environment. We are consistently making efforts to integrate the environmental concerns into the mainstream of the operations. We are giving thrust upon natural resource conservation like limestone, gypsum, water and energy. We are utilising different kinds of alternative fuels and raw materials. Awareness among the employees and local people on environmental concerns is an integral part of our company. We are adopting best environmental practices aligned with sustainable development goals.
Udaipur Cement Works Limited is a subsidiary of the JK Lakshmi Cement Limited. Since its inception, the company is committed towards boosting sustainability through adopting the latest art of technology designs, resource efficient equipment and various in-house innovations. We are giving thrust upon renewable and clean energy sources for our cement manufacturing. Solar Power and Waste Heat Recovery based power are our key ingredients for total power mix.

What impact does cement production have on the environment? Elaborate the major areas affected.
The major environmental concern areas during cement production are air emissions through point and nonpoint sources due to plant operation and emissions from mining operation, from material transport, carbon emissions through process, transit, noise pollution, vibration during mining, natural resource depletion, loss of biodiversity and change in landscape.
India is the second largest cement producer in the world. The Indian cement industry is well known for its energy and natural resource efficiency worldwide. The Indian cement industry is a frontrunner for implementing significant technology measures to ensure a greener future.
The cement industry is an energy intensive and significant contributor to climate change. Cement production contributes greenhouse gases directly and indirectly into the atmosphere through calcination and use of fossil fuels in an energy form. The industry believes in a circular economy by utilising alternative fuels for making cement. Cement companies are focusing on major areas of energy efficiency by adoption of technology measures, clinker substitution by alternative raw material for cement making, alternative fuels and green and clean energy resources. These all efforts are being done towards environment protection and sustainable future.
Nowadays, almost all cement units have a dry manufacturing process for cement production, only a few exceptions where wet manufacturing processes are in operation. In the dry manufacturing process, water is used only for the purpose of machinery cooling, which is recirculated in a closed loop, thus, no polluted water is generated during the dry manufacturing process.
We should also accept the fact that modern life is impossible without cement. However, through state-of-the-art technology and innovations, it is possible to mitigate all kinds of pollution without harm to the environment and human beings.

Tell us about the impact blended cement creates on the environment and emission rate.
Our country started cement production in 1914. However, it was introduced in the year 1904 at a small scale, earlier. Initially, the manufacturing of cement was only for Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC). In the 1980s, the production of blended cement was introduced by replacing fly ash and blast furnace slag. The production of blended cement increased in the growth period and crossed the 50 per cent in the year 2004.
The manufacturing of blended cement results in substantial savings in the thermal and electrical energy consumption as well as saving of natural resources. The overall consumption of raw materials, fossil fuel such as coal, efficient burning and state-of-the-art technology in cement plants have resulted in the gradual reduction of emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). Later, the production of blended cement was increased in manifolds.
If we think about the growth of blended cement in the past few decades, we can understand how much quantity of , (fly ash and slag) consumed and saved natural resources like limestone and fossil fuel, which were anyhow disposed of and harmed the environment. This is the reason it is called green cement. Reduction in the clinker to cement ratio has the second highest emission reduction potential i.e., 37 per cent. The low carbon roadmap for cement industries can be achieved from blended cement. Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Slag Cement (PSC) and Composite Cement are already approved by the National Agency BIS.
As far as kilogram CO2 per ton of cement emission concerns, Portland Slag Cement (PSC) has a larger potential, other than PPC, Composite Cement etc. for carbon emission reduction. BIS approved 60 per cent slag and 35 per cent clinker in composition of PSC. Thus, clinker per centage is quite less in PSC composition compared to other blended cement. The manufacturing of blended cement directly reduces thermal and process emissions, which contribute high in overall emissions from the cement industry, and this cannot be addressed through adoption of energy efficiency measures.
In the coming times, the cement industry must relook for other blended cement options to achieve a low carbon emissions road map. In near future, availability of fly ash and slag in terms of quality and quantity will be reduced due to various government schemes for low carbon initiatives viz. enhance renewable energy sources, waste to energy plants etc.
Further, it is required to increase awareness among consumers, like individual home builders or large infrastructure projects, to adopt greener alternatives viz. PPC and PSC for more sustainable
resource utilisation.

What are the decarbonising efforts taken by your organisation?
India is the world’s second largest cement producer. Rapid growth of big infrastructure, low-cost housing (Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna), smart cities project and urbanisation will create cement demand in future. Being an energy intensive industry, we are also focusing upon alternative and renewable energy sources for long-term sustainable business growth for cement production.
Presently, our focus is to improve efficiency of zero carbon electricity generation technology such as waste heat recovery power through process optimisation and by adopting technological innovations in WHR power systems. We are also increasing our capacity for WHR based power and solar power in the near future. Right now, we are sourcing about 50 per cent of our power requirement from clean and renewable energy sources i.e., zero carbon electricity generation technology. Usage of alternative fuel during co-processing in the cement manufacturing process is a viable and sustainable option. In our unit, we are utilising alternative raw material and fuel for reducing carbon emissions. We are also looking forward to green logistics for our product transport in nearby areas.
By reducing clinker – cement ratio, increasing production of PPC and PSC cement, utilisation of alternative raw materials like synthetic gypsum/chemical gypsum, Jarosite generated from other process industries, we can reduce carbon emissions from cement manufacturing process. Further, we are looking forward to generating onsite fossil free electricity generation facilities by increasing the capacity of WHR based power and ground mounted solar energy plants.
We can say energy is the prime requirement of the cement industry and renewable energy is one of the major sources, which provides an opportunity to make a clean, safe and infinite source of power which is affordable for the cement industry.

What are the current programmes run by your organisation for re-building the environment and reducing pollution?
We are working in different ways for environmental aspects. As I said, we strongly believe that we all together can make a difference. We focus on every environmental aspect directly / indirectly related to our operation and surroundings.
If we talk about air pollution in operation, every section of the operational unit is well equipped with state-of-the-art technology-based air pollution control equipment (BagHouse and ESP) to mitigate the dust pollution beyond the compliance standard. We use high class standard PTFE glass fibre filter bags in our bag houses. UCWL has installed the DeNOx system (SNCR) for abatement of NOx pollution within norms. The company has installed a 6 MW capacity Waste Heat Recovery based power plant that utilises waste heat of kiln i.e., green and clean energy source. Also, installed a 14.6 MW capacity solar power system in the form of a renewable energy source.
All material transfer points are equipped with a dust extraction system. Material is stored under a covered shed to avoid secondary fugitive dust emission sources. Finished product is stored in silos. Water spraying system are mounted with material handling point. Road vacuum sweeping machine deployed for housekeeping of paved area.
In mining, have deployed wet drill machine for drilling bore holes. Controlled blasting is carried out with optimum charge using Air Decking Technique with wooden spacers and non-electric detonator (NONEL) for control of noise, fly rock, vibration, and dust emission. No secondary blasting is being done. The boulders are broken by hydraulic rock breaker. Moreover, instead of road transport, we installed Overland Belt Conveying system for crushed limestone transport from mine lease area to cement plant. Thus omit an insignificant amount of greenhouse gas emissions due to material transport, which is otherwise emitted from combustion of fossil fuel in the transport system. All point emission sources (stacks) are well equipped with online continuous emission monitoring system (OCEMS) for measuring parameters like PM, SO2 and NOx for 24×7. OCEMS data are interfaced with SPCB and CPCB servers.
The company has done considerable work upon water conservation and certified at 2.76 times water positive. We installed a digital water flow metre for each abstraction point and digital ground water level recorder for measuring ground water level 24×7. All digital metres and level recorders are monitored by an in-house designed IoT based dashboard. Through this live dashboard, we can assess the impact of rainwater harvesting (RWH) and ground water monitoring.
All points of domestic sewage are well connected with Sewage Treatment Plant (STP) and treated water is being utilised in industrial cooling purposes, green belt development and in dust suppression. Effluent Treatment Plant (ETP) installed for mine’s workshop. Treated water is reused in washing activity. The unit maintains Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD).
Our unit has done extensive plantations of native and pollution tolerant species in industrial premises and mine lease areas. Moreover, we are not confined to our industrial boundary for plantation. We organised seedling distribution camps in our surrounding areas. We involve our stakeholders, too, for our plantation drive. UCWL has also extended its services under Corporate Social Responsibility for betterment of the environment in its surrounding. We conduct awareness programs for employees and stakeholders. We have banned Single Use Plastic (SUP) in our premises. In our industrial township, we have implemented a solid waste management system for our all households, guest house and bachelor hostel. A complete process of segregated waste (dry and wet) door to door collection systems is well established.

Tell us about the efforts taken by your organisation to better the environment in and around the manufacturing unit.
UCWL has invested capital in various environmental management and protection projects like installed DeNOx (SNCR) system, strengthening green belt development in and out of industrial premises, installed high class pollution control equipment, ground-mounted solar power plant etc.
The company has taken up various energy conservation projects like, installed VFD to reduce power consumption, improve efficiency of WHR power generation by installing additional economiser tubes and AI-based process optimisation systems. Further, we are going to increase WHR power generation capacity under our upcoming expansion project. UCWL promotes rainwater harvesting for augmentation of the ground water resource. Various scientifically based WHR structures are installed in plant premises and mine lease areas. About 80 per cent of present water requirement is being fulfilled by harvested rainwater sourced from Mine’s Pit. We are also looking forward towards green transport (CNG/LNG based), which will drastically reduce carbon footprint.
We are proud to say that JK Lakshmi Cement Limited has a strong leadership and vision for developing an eco-conscious and sustainable role model of our cement business. The company was a pioneer among cement industries of India, which had installed the DeNOx (SNCR) system in its cement plant.

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Concrete

NTPC selects Carbon Clean and Green Power for carbon capture facility

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Carbon Clean and Green Power International Pvt. Ltd has been chosen by NTPC Energy Technology Research Alliance (NETRA) to establish the carbon capture facility at NTPC Vindhyachal. This facility, which will use a modified tertiary amine to absorb CO2 from the power plant’s flue gas, is intended to capture 20 tonnes of CO2) per day. A catalytic hydrogenation method will eventually be used to mix the CO2 with hydrogen to create 10 tonnes of methanol each day. For NTPC, capturing CO2 from coal-fired power plant flue gas and turning it into methanol is a key area that has the potential to open up new business prospects and revenue streams.

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