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Demonetisation | The worst is behind the cement industry

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Though the industry as a whole has been able to bear the brunt of demonetisation, the quarter was impacted by uncertainty and higher input prices, and most players may report volume decline and flat realisations. We take a look at the performance of a few key players and analyst predictions on the road ahead.

Ambuja Cements expects revival of demand in June
Government data is showing that industry-wide output in November rose 0.5 per cent from a year earlier, the slowest increase in a year. The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Ajay Kapur of Ambuja Cements said, ‘Production in the January-October period climbed about 7 per cent, but demand will remain under pressure for two quarters.’

He further said that 60 per cent of the busi-?ness is done in cash. In a bid to push sales, his company encouraged its 42,000 distributors and contractors to open business accounts with banks and bought more than 5,000 point-of-sales machines for its retail outlets. Ambuja is now relying on low-cost homes, and a cut in interest rates to help restore demand. ‘The industry will see improvements in the near future as the government has taken steps to improve market conditions. Construction activity, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, is facing challenges due to heavy dependence on cash,’ Kapur said.

Ambuja is relying on Modi’s ‘Housing for all’ programme that started in June 2015 to stimulate demand. The government aims to construct more than 20 million houses across the country by 2022. On December 31, Modi also announced rebates and interest waiver for home loans under the programme.

The housing program can generate an additional cement demand of 120-150 million tonnes (MT) over the next six years, versus the current annual off-take of 260-270 MT, Kapur said.

Ambuja’s shares have dropped 12.4 per cent since the Centre’s November 8 announcement. Larger rival UltraTech Cement Ltd has lost 15 per cent, almost five times as much as the losses in the NSE Nifty 50 Index in the same period.

‘Cement demand is expected to drop 0.5 per cent in the financial year 2016-17 against our earlier estimate for a 5.5 per cent growth,’Emkay Global Financial Services Analyst Sanjeev Kumar Singh wrote in a report dated December 28. Brokerage Nirmal Bang Equities expects demand to decline 1.3 per cent in the year through March.

‘We expect demand disruption to push down cement demand recovery by at least a year and hence capacity utilisation will be lower for a longer period than what was expected earlier,’Mangesh Bhadang, an analyst at Nirmal Bang, said in a December 2016 report.

Cement production growth forecast downgraded
India’s cement producers will be hit by the country’s controversial demonetisation programme and higher pet coke prices, according to ratings agency, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).

According to Ind-Ra, cement production is likely to grow by 4 per cent in the 2017 fiscal (FY17). This is down from its earlier estimate of 4-6 per cent, as the real estate and construction sectors bear the brunt of the economic impacts of demonetisation, which saw the government ban higher denomination currency notes.

Lower cement output is expected in the November-December 2016 period, Ind-Ra said. Production growth was just 0.5 per cent in November, compared to 6.2 per cent in October and 4.3 per cent on average between April and November. Prices have also fallen between Rs 15 and Rs 20 per bag.

In addition to weaker demand, Indian cement producers are having to face the rise in the cost of pet coke to around $60-70 per tonne from $40 per tonne at the start of FY17. More costly pet coke ‘ as well as higher diesel prices ‘ increases input costs for cement production, while lower demand limits the ability of cement companies to pass on higher prices to their customers. The smaller producers will be under stress in coming quarters, according to Ind-Ra, although the outlook for bigger cement producers is more stable.

Demonetisation uncertainty may cause cement firms to report fall in volume The quarter was impacted by uncertainty due to currency demonetisation, and the cement sector will produce a mixed bag of results, says Kotak Securities. Most of the players may report volume decline and flat realisations. Cement players in northern India will report drop in volumes with sequential drop in realisations, and south India-based players will report healthy volume growth coupled with sequential improvement in realisations.

For Q3FY17, cement prices have averaged Rs 326/bag’ flat sequentially, though up by Rs 16/bag y-o-y. The price improvement will be seen in the west and south as prices in central and north India trend lower. The sequential decline notwith-?standing, cement prices in north, central and west India for Q3FY17E will appear substantially better off compared to the same period last year. Among our coverage, Orient Cement stands out for a strong 14 per cent q-o-q improvement in cement realisation owing to its large concentration in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

Our coverage universe will report a 3 per cent y-o-y decline in cement volumes, compared to 3.7 per cent y-o-y growth for October-November 2016 (based on DIPP), reflecting the impact of weakness in December 2016. Pan-India players will likely report decline in volumes (5-9 per cent) while players in southern India appear to have been less impacted owing to institutional demand likely in the AP/Telangana region that may allow players such as India Cement and Dalmia to continue to report healthy volume growth.

Burnpur Cement blames demonetisation
A small cement producer from eastern India, Burnpur Cement Ltd, has said in a regulatory filing that its repayments had turned ‘irregular’with lenders because of ‘depressed’ market conditions. It said that it had fallen behind on repayments due to impacted cash flow caused because of demonetisation. Burnpur Cement is planning to raise its production capacity from 600,000 tonnes, spread between two units, to 3 million tonnes (MT) per annum at a cost of Rs 500 crore. The firm, which reported revenue of Rs 88 crore and a net loss of Rs 12.7 crore in 2015-16, had long-term borrowings of Rs 202 crore. It also had around Rs 39 crore of short-term liabilities, or those that it had to pay off within a year.

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

ETBrandEquity

Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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In spite of company’s optimism, demand weakness in cement is seen in the 4% y-o-y drop in sales volume. (Reuters)

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Cost cuts and better realizations save? the ?day ?for ?UltraTech Cement, Updated: 27 Jan 2020, Vatsala Kamat from Live Mint

Lower cost of energy and logistics helped Ebitda per tonne rise by about 29% in Q3
Premiumization of acquired brands, synergistic?operations hold promise for future profit growth Topics

UltraTech Cement
India’s largest cement producer UltraTech Cement Ltd turned out a bittersweet show in the December quarter. A sharp drop in fuel costs and higher realizations helped drive profit growth. But the inherent demand weakness was evident in the sales volumes drop during the quarter.

Better realizations during the December quarter, in spite of the 4% year-on-year volume decline, minimized the pain. Net stand-alone revenue fell by 2.6% to ?9,981.8 crore.

But as pointed out earlier, lower costs on most fronts helped profitability. The chart alongside shows the sharp drop in energy costs led by lower petcoke prices, lower fuel consumption and higher use of green power. Logistics costs, too, fell due to lower railway freight charges and synergies from the acquired assets. These savings helped offset the increase in raw material costs.

The upshot: Q3 Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) of about ?990 per tonne was 29% higher from a year ago. The jump in profit on a per tonne basis was more or less along expected lines, given the increase in realizations. "Besides, the reduction in net debt by about ?2,000 crore is a key positive," said Binod Modi, analyst at Reliance Securities Ltd.

Graphic by Santosh Sharma/Mint
What also impressed analysts is the nimble-footed integration of the recently merged cement assets of Nathdwara and Century, which was a concern on the Street.

Kunal Shah, analyst (institutional equities) at Yes Securities (India) Ltd, said: "The company has proved its ability of asset integration. Century’s cement assets were ramped up to 79% capacity utilization in December, even as they operated Nathdwara generating an Ebitda of ?1,500 per tonne."

Looks like the demand weakness mirrored in weak sales during the quarter was masked by the deft integration and synergies derived from these acquired assets. This drove UltraTech’s stock up by 2.6% to ?4,643 after the Q3 results were declared on Friday.

Brand transition from Century to UltraTech, which is 55% complete, is likely to touch 80% by September 2020. A report by Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd highlights that the Ebitda per tonne for premium brands is about ?5-10 higher per bag than the average (A cement bag weighs 50kg). Of course, with competition increasing in the arena, it remains to be seen how brand premiumization in the cement industry will pan out. UltraTech Cement scores well among peers here.

However, there are road bumps ahead for the cement sector and for UltraTech. Falling gross domestic product growth, fiscal slippages and lower budgetary allocation to infrastructure sector are making industry houses jittery on growth. Although UltraTech’s management is confident that cement demand is looking up, sustainability and pricing power remains a worry for the near term.

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