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The Indian cement industry is formulating various strategies in order to maintain its profitability in an adverse market conditions.

For more than three years, overcapacity has shadowed the Indian cement industry and it continues to wait for the good days that it was expecting post the general elections of 2014. Though there are a few signs of improvements, the expectations from the industry are far removed from the ground reality. Right now, analysts are busy crunching the numbers to ascertain the impact of demonetisation. However, in spite of this scenario, a few players are doing better than others. We take a closer look at the numbers to ascertain the actual situaution.

INDIAN CEMENT REVIEW talked to a few consulting firms and industry stakeholders to know why a few cement companies will weather the current storm.

For example, we contacted Boston Consulting Group (BCG), which has been advising many top cement companies like ACC and UltraTech. Amit Ganeriwalla and Rishbh Goel have been studying the cement industry from close quarters, and have expressed clearly the areas in which they have spotted opportunities for the cement industry.

The cost factor
BCG states that as the cement industry goes through the current overcapacity cycle, it is imperative for players to immediately evaluate and implement many cost efficiency initiatives. The advent of advanced analytics and digital tools is helping identify fundamentally new sources of cost optimisation and firms need to invest in building these capabilities internally. A structured cost improvement program leveraging the best of lean methodologies and digital tools can help significantly shore up profitability and drive competitive advantage in these challenging times. Leaning on the traditional levers of ?lean operations? continues to form the backbone of such efforts, and there is growing awareness and adoption of digital tools which are churning huge amounts of data to help identify hitherto hidden opportunities. Based on BCG?s work with various cement players on this topic, the firm believes there is an opportunity to optimise costs between 10-15 per cent depending on the starting position and level of operational sophistication.

The article further emphasizes on the logistics cost base. It identifies four key levers:

  • Freight rates
  • Logistics operations
  • CFA and handling costs
  • Plant to market network.

For long, the main effort on freight rate reduction has relied on negotiations with transporters. While that continues to be one of the levers, there is a lot of focus that firms are driving on unlocking efficiencies through the right mix of road vs. rail, maximising direct movement, improving vehicle turnaround, optimising size of vehicles /wagons deployed, etc.

Maximising direct movement of material from plant to customer can significantly impact cost both from reducing extra handling and eliminating the costly secondary leg of transportation from warehouses. With GPS and RFID adoption growing among cement firms, this is soon becoming a ?hygiene? practice. The most critical lever on logistics however is the optimisation of plant-to-market network. Using latest geo-analytical tools, it is now possible to re-design the warehouse network to reduce the overall logistics cost significantly.

Plugging loopholes
Companies are also optimising diesel consumeption in mines through monitoring devices and analysing usage patterns to spot leakages and inefficiencies. There are also opportunities to deploy variable frequency drives to optimise fixed power consumption in the plants.

Krishna Kumar, an industry veteran, works with a company whose main business is to produce steel and the by-product goes into making of cement. He talks about the levers in the hands of top management – logistics, energy consumption, process engineering and alternate materials.

He says that cement is a bulk commodity that becomes expensive to transport beyond 500 km. Cement players have tried various innovative models over the decades to bring down the distribution cost. One has to look beyond the established models like the hub & spoke model, satellite grinding units and the bulk/packing terminals, all with an objective to optimise the distribution cost. However, these models are now at their saturation limit. Industry needs to look into the next level of innovative models. Kumar talks about a potential innovation which could be moving the bagged cement in trucks mounted with containers and ply it like mobile mini-warehouses to cater to multiple small counters. Though the idea seems weird, it is not an implausible one. The need of the hour is some disruptive innovation; after all, 32 per cent of the total delivered cost is made up of distribution cost.

Fuel and electricity together comprise approximately 60 per cent of the variable cost and form the biggest portion of the feed fuel pie. Many cement players have now substituted close to 100 per cent of the fossil fuels (mainly coal) by pet coke, thanks to the drop in crude prices. Fuel cost in Rs/Kcal with pet coke had a potential to less than that of coal by as much as 30 per cent during the first quarter of this calendar year.

ERCOM is another firm advising cement companies on operational matters. In its article on use of renewable energy, it indicates that there is a transition likely to happen from conventional energy systems. It is a sustainable way to meet the ever-increasing demand for energy.

The article focuses on the recent policies of the government. The cement industry is one of the most energy intensive industries, and energy costs account for a significant percentage (approximately 30-40 per cent) of the total manufacturing cost. The Centre has decided to substantially alter the energy mix that powers India in the future such that at least 40 per cent of India?s total power capacity will come from renewable sources by 2030. This is as per the country?s targets under the Paris climate change agreement.

The cement industry is gearing up for some rough time, but there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

ETBrandEquity

Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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In spite of company’s optimism, demand weakness in cement is seen in the 4% y-o-y drop in sales volume. (Reuters)

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Cost cuts and better realizations save? the ?day ?for ?UltraTech Cement, Updated: 27 Jan 2020, Vatsala Kamat from Live Mint

Lower cost of energy and logistics helped Ebitda per tonne rise by about 29% in Q3
Premiumization of acquired brands, synergistic?operations hold promise for future profit growth Topics

UltraTech Cement
India’s largest cement producer UltraTech Cement Ltd turned out a bittersweet show in the December quarter. A sharp drop in fuel costs and higher realizations helped drive profit growth. But the inherent demand weakness was evident in the sales volumes drop during the quarter.

Better realizations during the December quarter, in spite of the 4% year-on-year volume decline, minimized the pain. Net stand-alone revenue fell by 2.6% to ?9,981.8 crore.

But as pointed out earlier, lower costs on most fronts helped profitability. The chart alongside shows the sharp drop in energy costs led by lower petcoke prices, lower fuel consumption and higher use of green power. Logistics costs, too, fell due to lower railway freight charges and synergies from the acquired assets. These savings helped offset the increase in raw material costs.

The upshot: Q3 Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) of about ?990 per tonne was 29% higher from a year ago. The jump in profit on a per tonne basis was more or less along expected lines, given the increase in realizations. "Besides, the reduction in net debt by about ?2,000 crore is a key positive," said Binod Modi, analyst at Reliance Securities Ltd.

Graphic by Santosh Sharma/Mint
What also impressed analysts is the nimble-footed integration of the recently merged cement assets of Nathdwara and Century, which was a concern on the Street.

Kunal Shah, analyst (institutional equities) at Yes Securities (India) Ltd, said: "The company has proved its ability of asset integration. Century’s cement assets were ramped up to 79% capacity utilization in December, even as they operated Nathdwara generating an Ebitda of ?1,500 per tonne."

Looks like the demand weakness mirrored in weak sales during the quarter was masked by the deft integration and synergies derived from these acquired assets. This drove UltraTech’s stock up by 2.6% to ?4,643 after the Q3 results were declared on Friday.

Brand transition from Century to UltraTech, which is 55% complete, is likely to touch 80% by September 2020. A report by Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd highlights that the Ebitda per tonne for premium brands is about ?5-10 higher per bag than the average (A cement bag weighs 50kg). Of course, with competition increasing in the arena, it remains to be seen how brand premiumization in the cement industry will pan out. UltraTech Cement scores well among peers here.

However, there are road bumps ahead for the cement sector and for UltraTech. Falling gross domestic product growth, fiscal slippages and lower budgetary allocation to infrastructure sector are making industry houses jittery on growth. Although UltraTech’s management is confident that cement demand is looking up, sustainability and pricing power remains a worry for the near term.

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