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Concrete

Base effect hides monthly decline

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Steel and cement sector witnessed a growth of 59.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent (YoY) respectively, which reflects the capex push provided by the Central and State governments. The decline in case of cement and steel production is mainly due to impact of the record surge in Covid-19 cases in May 2021 and the associated lockdowns on construction activity.

The Eight core sector should be read with caution again as the favourable base effect is again at play for the third consecutive month. In May 2021, core sector output rose by 16.8 per cent as against a contraction of 21.4 per cent in May 2020. On a month on month level comparison, there has been a marginal decline of 3.7 per cent which reflects the impact of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated lockdowns on business activities. One should note that May has been characterised by lockdowns of varied nature in both FY21 and FY22. The localised lockdowns during May??1 did have a bearing on output of the 8-core sector to some extent while the double-digit growth can be chiefly ascribed to the low growth number in May??020. There has been an upward revision in the core sector growth data for April??1 to 60.9 per cent (previous estimate: 56 per cent).

The double-digit Y-O-Y growth has been primarily driven strong growth registered in steel, natural gas and refinery products. Month-on-month improvement has been registered in case of fertilisers (ahead of kharif season), natural gas and coal production. The monthly index for May??1 is still 6.1 per cent lower than the pre-pandemic index of February??0 and 8.2 per cent lower than May??019 (the year prior to the pandemic). So far in FY22, the core sector output has witnessed a growth of 35.8 per cent compared with a de-growth of 29.4 per cent in the corresponding month last year but this purely a baseeffect phenomenon. There could be support from government capex as the fiscal numbers for this period show higher outlay on roads.

Key highlights

Coal production was higher by 6.9 per cent in May 2021 as against -14.1 per cent in May 2021. Despite the 2nd wave of the COVID19 pandemic disrupting business activities during the month, there has been a month-on-month improvement of 3.1 per cent in coal production on the back of revival in demand from the power sector.

Crude oil production fell by 6.3 per cent in May 2021, registering the 42nd consecutive monthly decline. The decline in production can be ascribed to adverse climatic conditions created by cyclone Tauktae, which hit the Indian west coast coupled with less than planned contribution from workover wells, drilling wells and old wells. The overall production has also been lower owing to lower consumer demand, infectivity issues in few wells, workovers and water knockouts.

Natural gas production rose by 20.1 per cent in May??021 compared with contraction of 16.7 per cent in May??020 mainly due to higher output from the PSC fields. However, production in government fields were low due to reduced gas production in Western Offshore due to cyclone Taukate, delay in commencement of gas production and less offtake by consumers due to Covid-19 issues. Natural gas production by Pvt/JVs companies in the PSC (production sharing contracts) regime has almost tripled on a YoY basis. This is due to increased contributions from D-34 field of KG DWN 98/3 and wells from satellite cluster.

Refinery production rose by 15.3 per cent in May??1 as against a de-growth of 21.3 per cent in May??020. There has however been a month-on-month decline of 4.6 per cent reflective of lower consumer demand amidst the localised lockdowns during the 2nd wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. Products that witnessed a rise in production were high speed diesel, petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuel and petcoke, while fuel oil and kerosene saw a fall in output during this month.

Fertiliser production declined to a 14-month low of 9.6 per cent in May 2021 compared with a high base of 7.5 per cent in May 2020. The m-o-m growth of 16.1 per cent can be ascribed fertilizer manufacturing companies increasing their production in May over April in anticipation of good demand ahead of the kharif sowing season. Along with this, the Centre increased the subsidy on fertilizers in mid-May after fertilizer producers announced their plans of increasing prices due to a surge in international feedstock prices. This hike in subsidies assuaged manufacturers??worries around a fall in demand from farmers. This is likely to have supported production too.

Steel and cement registered a growth of 59.3 per cent and 7.9 per cent (YoY) respectively which does reflect the capex push provided by the governments at both Centre and State level along with a low base effect. The m-o-m decline in case of cement and steel production highlights the impact of the record surge in Covid-19 cases in May 2021 and the associated lockdowns on construction activity. Labour shortages due to reverse migration also had a bearing on construction activities during May??021.

Electricity generation rose by 7.3 per cent in May 2021 as against a low base of 14.8 per cent in May 2020. However, there has been a month-on-month decline of 7.1 per cent as states imposed lockdowns to rein in the devastating effect of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The higher usage of electricity in residential locations during the summer season limited the monthly moderation to some extent.

CARE Ratings??View

There has been a dip in the core sector index for May??021 compared with the previous month which reflects the impact of the localised lockdowns on business activity. However, as economic activities, especially in the industrial segment were not significantly affected in June 2021, output of the core sector will witness an improvement. There has been a strong push for capex from the Government which will drive steel and cement while the advent of the kharif season will drive fertilizer production. The impact of the base-effect will continue in the next few months but will fade away subsequently. The IIP for the month of May??021 could range between 20-30 per cent though one should not read much into it.

Courtesy: CARE Ratings

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

The article is authored by Sushant Hede, Associate Economist. He can be contacted on: Email: sushant.hede@careratings.com | Tel: 91-22-6837 4348

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Limited. CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis / inferences / views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

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Concrete

Cement Demand Revives As Prices Decline In Q3 FY26

Nuvama reports improved volume growth after price correction

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A report by Nuvama Financial Services (Nuvama) said cement sector demand revived in the third quarter of fiscal year twenty twenty six as prices declined, supporting volume growth across regions. The note indicated that sequential price correction helped replenish demand that had been subdued by elevated pricing earlier in the year. Nuvama quantified the price decline as a sequential correction that varied across states and segments, facilitating restocking by merchants and traders.

The report suggested that improved affordability after the price correction encouraged housing and infrastructure activity, with developers and contractors adjusting procurement plans. It added that regional dynamics varied, with some markets showing faster recovery while others remained reliant on seasonal construction cycles. Housing demand was driven by both affordable and mid segment projects, while infrastructure segment recovery was contingent on timely execution of public works.

Analysts at Nuvama assessed that the price moderation eased inventory pressures for manufacturers and distributors and supported margin stabilisation at several producers. Demand improvement was visible in both urban and rural segments, although the pace of recovery differed by state and trade channel. Producers were seen balancing price realisations with volume targets and managing input cost volatility through operational efficiencies.

The report recommended that investors monitor volumes and realisations closely as market equilibrium emerges in the coming quarters, noting that sustainability of recovery would depend on monsoon patterns and government infrastructure outlays. Overall, the assessment pointed to a cautiously optimistic outlook for the cement industry as price correction translated into tangible volume gains. Market participants were advised to track early signs of demand broadening beyond core construction hubs to assess the depth of the rebound.

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Concrete

Refractory demands in our kiln have changed

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Radha Singh, Senior Manager (P&Q), Shree Digvijay Cement, points out why performance, predictability and life-cycle value now matter more than routine replacement in cement kilns.

As Indian cement plants push for higher throughput, increased alternative fuel usage and tighter shutdown cycles, refractory performance in kilns and pyro-processing systems is under growing pressure. In this interview, Radha Singh, Senior Manager (P&Q), Shree Digvijay Cement, shares how refractory demands have evolved on the ground and how smarter digital monitoring is improving kiln stability, uptime and clinker quality.

How have refractory demands changed in your kiln and pyro-processing line over the last five years?
Over the last five years, refractory demands in our kiln and pyro line have changed. Earlier, the focus was mostly on standard grades and routine shutdown-based replacement. But now, because of higher production loads, more alternative fuels and raw materials (AFR) usage and greater temperature variation, the expectation from refractory has increased.
In our own case, the current kiln refractory has already completed around 1.5 years, which itself shows how much more we now rely on materials that can handle thermal shock, alkali attack and coating fluctuations. We have moved towards more stable, high-performance linings so that we don’t have to enter the kiln frequently for repairs.
Overall, the shift has been from just ‘installation and run’ to selecting refractories that give longer life, better coating behaviour and more predictable performance under tougher operating conditions.

What are the biggest refractory challenges in the preheater, calciner and cooler zones?
• Preheater: Coating instability, chloride/sulphur cycles and brick erosion.
• Calciner: AFR firing, thermal shock and alkali infiltration.
• Cooler: Severe abrasion, red-river formation and mechanical stress on linings.
Overall, the biggest challenge is maintaining lining stability under highly variable operating conditions.

How do you evaluate and select refractory partners for long-term performance?
In real plant conditions, we don’t select a refractory partner just by looking at price. First, we see their past performance in similar kilns and whether their material has actually survived our operating conditions. We also check how strong their technical support is during shutdowns, because installation quality matters as much as the material itself.
Another key point is how quickly they respond during breakdowns or hot spots. A good partner should be available on short notice. We also look at their failure analysis capability, whether they can explain why a lining failed and suggest improvements.
On top of this, we review the life they delivered in the last few campaigns, their supply reliability and their willingness to offer plant-specific custom solutions instead of generic grades. Only a partner who supports us throughout the life cycle, which includes selection, installation, monitoring and post-failure analysis, fits our long-term requirement.

Can you share a recent example where better refractory selection improved uptime or clinker quality?
Recently, we upgraded to a high-abrasion basic brick at the kiln outlet. Earlier we had frequent chipping and coating loss. With the new lining, thermal stability improved and the coating became much more stable. As a result, our shutdown interval increased and clinker quality remained more consistent. It had a direct impact on our uptime.

How is increased AFR use affecting refractory behaviour?
Increased AFR use is definitely putting more stress on the refractory. The biggest issue we see daily is the rise in chlorine, alkalis and volatiles, which directly attack the lining, especially in the calciner and kiln inlet. AFR firing is also not as stable as conventional fuel, so we face frequent temperature fluctuations, which cause more thermal shock and small cracks in the lining.
Another real problem is coating instability. Some days the coating builds too fast, other days it suddenly drops, and both conditions impact refractory life. We also notice more dust circulation and buildup inside the calciner whenever the AFR mix changes, which again increases erosion.
Because of these practical issues, we have started relying more on alkali-resistant, low-porosity and better thermal shock–resistant materials to handle the additional stress coming from AFR.

What role does digital monitoring or thermal profiling play in your refractory strategy?
Digital tools like kiln shell scanners, IR imaging and thermal profiling help us detect weakening areas much earlier. This reduces unplanned shutdowns, helps identify hotspots accurately and allows us to replace only the critical sections. Overall, our maintenance has shifted from reactive to predictive, improving lining life significantly.

How do you balance cost, durability and installation speed during refractory shutdowns?
We focus on three points:
• Material quality that suits our thermal profile and chemistry.
• Installation speed, in fast turnarounds, we prefer monolithic.
• Life-cycle cost—the cheapest material is not the most economical. We look at durability, future downtime and total cost of ownership.
This balance ensures reliable performance without unnecessary expenditure.

What refractory or pyro-processing innovations could transform Indian cement operations?
Some promising developments include:
• High-performance, low-porosity and nano-bonded refractories
• Precast modular linings to drastically reduce shutdown time
• AI-driven kiln thermal analytics
• Advanced coating management solutions
• More AFR-compatible refractory mixes

These innovations can significantly improve kiln stability, efficiency and maintenance planning across the industry.

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Concrete

Digital supply chain visibility is critical

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MSR Kali Prasad, Chief Digital and Information Officer, Shree Cement, discusses how data, discipline and scale are turning Industry 4.0 into everyday business reality.

Over the past five years, digitalisation in Indian cement manufacturing has moved decisively beyond experimentation. Today, it is a strategic lever for cost control, operational resilience and sustainability. In this interview, MSR Kali Prasad, Chief Digital and Information Officer, Shree Cement, explains how integrated digital foundations, advanced analytics and real-time visibility are helping deliver measurable business outcomes.

How has digitalisation moved from pilot projects to core strategy in Indian cement manufacturing over the past five years?
Digitalisation in Indian cement has evolved from isolated pilot initiatives into a core business strategy because outcomes are now measurable, repeatable and scalable. The key shift has been the move away from standalone solutions toward an integrated digital foundation built on standardised processes, governed data and enterprise platforms that can be deployed consistently across plants and functions.
At Shree Cement, this transition has been very pragmatic. The early phase focused on visibility through dashboards, reporting, and digitisation of critical workflows. Over time, this has progressed into enterprise-level analytics and decision support across manufacturing and the supply chain,
with clear outcomes in cost optimisation, margin protection and revenue improvement through enhanced customer experience.
Equally important, digital is no longer the responsibility of a single function. It is embedded into day-to-day operations across planning, production, maintenance, despatch and customer servicing, supported by enterprise systems, Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) data platforms, and a structured approach to change management.

Which digital interventions are delivering the highest ROI across mining, production and logistics today?
In a capital- and cost-intensive sector like cement, the highest returns come from digital interventions that directly reduce unit costs or unlock latent capacity without significant capex.
Supply chain and planning (advanced analytics): Tools for demand forecasting, S&OP, network optimisation and scheduling deliver strong returns by lowering logistics costs, improving service levels, and aligning production with demand in a fragmented and regionally diverse market.
Mining (fleet and productivity analytics): Data-led mine planning, fleet analytics, despatch discipline, and idle-time reduction improve fuel efficiency and equipment utilisation, generating meaningful savings in a cost-heavy operation.
Manufacturing (APC and process analytics): Advanced Process Control, mill optimisation, and variability reduction improve thermal and electrical efficiency, stabilise quality and reduce rework and unplanned stoppages.
Customer experience and revenue enablement (digital platforms): Dealer and retailer apps, order visibility and digitally enabled technical services improve ease of doing business and responsiveness. We are also empowering channel partners with transparent, real-time information on schemes, including eligibility, utilisation status and actionable recommendations, which improves channel satisfaction and market execution while supporting revenue growth.
Overall, while Artificial Intelligence (AI) and IIoT are powerful enablers, it is advanced analytics anchored in strong processes that typically delivers the fastest and most reliable ROI.

How is real-time data helping plants shift from reactive maintenance to predictive and prescriptive operations?
Real-time and near real-time data is driving a more proactive and disciplined maintenance culture, beginning with visibility and progressively moving toward prediction and prescription.
At Shree Cement, we have implemented a robust SAP Plant Maintenance framework to standardise maintenance workflows. This is complemented by IIoT-driven condition monitoring, ensuring consistent capture of equipment health indicators such as vibration, temperature, load, operating patterns and alarms.
Real-time visibility enables early detection of abnormal conditions, allowing teams to intervene before failures occur. As data quality improves and failure histories become structured, predictive models can anticipate likely failure modes and recommend timely interventions, improving MTBF and reducing downtime. Over time, these insights will evolve into prescriptive actions, including spares readiness, maintenance scheduling, and operating parameter adjustments, enabling reliability optimisation with minimal disruption.
A critical success factor is adoption. Predictive insights deliver value only when they are embedded into daily workflows, roles and accountability structures. Without this, they remain insights without action.

In a cost-sensitive market like India, how do cement companies balance digital investment with price competitiveness?
In India’s intensely competitive cement market, digital investments must be tightly linked to tangible business outcomes, particularly cost reduction, service improvement, and faster decision-making.
This balance is achieved by prioritising high-impact use cases such as planning efficiency, logistics optimisation, asset reliability, and process stability, all of which typically deliver quick payback. Equally important is building scalable and governed digital foundations that reduce the marginal cost of rolling out new use cases across plants.
Digitally enabled order management, live despatch visibility, and channel partner platforms also improve customer centricity while controlling cost-to-serve, allowing service levels to improve without proportionate increases in headcount or overheads.
In essence, the most effective digital investments do not add cost. They protect margins by reducing variability, improving planning accuracy, and strengthening execution discipline.

How is digitalisation enabling measurable reductions in energy consumption, emissions, and overall carbon footprint?
Digitalisation plays a pivotal role in improving energy efficiency, reducing emissions and lowering overall carbon intensity.
Real-time monitoring and analytics enable near real-time tracking of energy consumption and critical operating parameters, allowing inefficiencies to be identified quickly and corrective actions to be implemented. Centralised data consolidation across plants enables benchmarking, accelerates best-practice adoption, and drives consistent improvements in energy performance.
Improved asset reliability through predictive maintenance reduces unplanned downtime and process instability, directly lowering energy losses. Digital platforms also support more effective planning and control of renewable energy sources and waste heat recovery systems, reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
Most importantly, digitalisation enables sustainability progress to be tracked with greater accuracy and consistency, supporting long-term ESG commitments.

What role does digital supply chain visibility play in managing demand volatility and regional market dynamics in India?
Digital supply chain visibility is critical in India, where demand is highly regional, seasonality is pronounced, and logistics constraints can shift rapidly.
At Shree Cement, planning operates across multiple horizons. Annual planning focuses on capacity, network footprint and medium-term demand. Monthly S&OP aligns demand, production and logistics, while daily scheduling drives execution-level decisions on despatch, sourcing and prioritisation.
As digital maturity increases, this structure is being augmented by central command-and-control capabilities that manage exceptions such as plant constraints, demand spikes, route disruptions and order prioritisation. Planning is also shifting from aggregated averages to granular, cost-to-serve and exception-based decision-making, improving responsiveness, lowering logistics costs and strengthening service reliability.

How prepared is the current workforce for Industry 4.0, and what reskilling strategies are proving most effective?
Workforce preparedness for Industry 4.0 is improving, though the primary challenge lies in scaling capabilities consistently across diverse roles.
The most effective approach is to define capability requirements by role and tailor enablement accordingly. Senior leadership focuses on digital literacy for governance, investment prioritisation, and value tracking. Middle management is enabled to use analytics for execution discipline and adoption. Frontline sales and service teams benefit from
mobile-first tools and KPI-driven workflows, while shop-floor and plant teams focus on data-driven operations, APC usage, maintenance discipline, safety and quality routines.
Personalised, role-based learning paths, supported by on-ground champions and a clear articulation of practical benefits, drive adoption far more effectively than generic training programmes.

Which emerging digital technologies will fundamentally reshape cement manufacturing in the next decade?
AI and GenAI are expected to have the most significant impact, particularly when combined with connected operations and disciplined processes.
Key technologies likely to reshape the sector include GenAI and agentic AI for faster root-cause analysis, knowledge access, and standardisation of best practices; industrial foundation models that learn patterns across large sensor datasets; digital twins that allow simulation of process changes before implementation; and increasingly autonomous control systems that integrate sensors, AI, and APC to maintain stability with minimal manual intervention.
Over time, this will enable more centralised monitoring and management of plant operations, supported by strong processes, training and capability-building.

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