Every other news that pertains to the cement sector presents a gloomy picture and leading the posse are research analysts who are not very optimistic of cement stocks with the exception of a few leading companies that have consistently performed well even under duress. Indian Cement Review checks out whether it is time to call the doctor….The Indian cement industry had witnessed a dream run in the recent past. Consumption of cement in the country had grown at a CAGR of 9.9 per cent during the period FY 06-10. The cement demand growth had surpassed the economic growth rate during the same period. In FY10, cement demand grew at 11.1 per cent recording a multiplier of 1.4 times with the economic growth rate. However, in FY11, cement demand grew at merely 5.1 per cent on YoY basis. The multiplier of cement demand growth to the GDP growth declined below one. Construction activities remained subdued in the last fiscal owing to various reasons. Prolonged monsoon, heavy winter, delay in execution of infrastructural projects due to environmental hurdles and end of construction activities related to Commonwealth Games all together led to lower cement demand growth in FY11. Slowdown in the housing sector due to rising interest rates also impacted cement off take.The long-term cement demand in the country is expected to remain intactGoing forward, cement demand will largely be driven by the increased focus of the government on the infrastructure development and promotion of low-cost affordable housing in the country. The real estate sector continues to dominate as the largest cement-consuming sector in the country. Decent economic growth, rising income levels of a growing middle class, concept of nuclear families catching pace, tax incentives and modern attitudes towards home ownership (the average age of a new homeowner has declined to 32 years compared with 45 years a decade ago) will continue to boost the housing demand and real estate related to the retail segment. The measures announced in the recent budget also indicate continued support of the government to the affordable housing segment which will help the real estate sector to continue its growth momentum and in turn cement demand. CARE Research estimates that in the next four to five years, cement demand to the tune of about 250-260 mn tonne is expected to emanate from the construction of new dwellings in the urban region alone.Infrastructure sector will need more than 600 million tonne of cement during the Twelfth Five Year PlanCement demand is expected to pick up as government expenditure on infrastructure projects catches momentum. In the recent budget, GoI has taken various initiatives to attract foreign funds towards the infrastructural sector. Such measures will help in providing the much-needed financial support to the infrastructural projects and in turn enable faster execution which will boost the cement demand. GoI has envisaged an investment of more than Rs 4000 bn for infrastructure development under the Twelfth Five Year Plan. This will augur well for the cement industry, currently almost 25 per cent of the total cement consumption in the country is contributed by the infrastructure sector. Based on the cement component in the civil construction, CARE Research has estimated that the investments planned under various sub-sectors of the infrastructure sector during the Twelfth Five Year Plan will derive a cement demand of more than 600 million tonne. The share of the infrastructure sector in the total cement consumption is estimated to reach a level of 35 per cent by the end of FY17. Cement demand which is expected to emanate on the back of the planned investments under different infrastructure sub-segments in the Twelfth five year plan is shown in the following chart: Cement demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.3 per cent during the period FY 12-14. The following table gives the overall cement demand-supply situation over next three years:Capacity utilisation rate to remain in the range of 74-76 per cent during FY 12-14In past few years, the gap between cement demand and capacity has been widening due to substantial capacity addition. The cement industry witnessed a capacity addition of about 142.2 million tonne during the period of FY05-11. Out of this, about 67 million tonne of capacity was added in last two fiscals which is almost 23 per cent of industry’s total capacity as on March 31, 2011. As a result, the overall utilisation rate of the industry dropped from the peak of 93 per cent in FY07 to 75 per cent in FY11.Cement industry is expected to add capacity of about 86 million tonne in the period FY 12-14. The industry will continue to face a surplus situation. The operating rate of the industry will remain in the narrow range of 74 – 76 per cent during FY 12-14.Even though the Break-even Cushion is at comfortable level, prices to remain under pressureEven with the decline in the operating rate to a level below 80 per cent, the cement industry has been able to hold the prices on the back of high break-even cushion value.Break-even CushionBreak-even cushion is defined as the ratio of overall capacity utilisation rate of the industry to the utilisation rate at the break-even point in a particular year.Although the break-even cushion value has declined in the past three years, it is still at the comfortable level of two times. With this, cement industry is in better position to avoid substantial price cuts. However, CARE Research expects cement prices to remain under pressure in the current fiscal.(Revati Kasture, Head – Industry Research & Chaitanya Raut, Sr. Manager CARE Ratings)Operating rates will be challenged, profitability headed towards decadal lowCRISIL Research expects cement profitability to decline to its lowest level in the past 10 years by 2012-13. A huge demand-supply imbalance, fueled by supply glut, will drive cement profitability down. The supply glut will slacken cement manufacturers’ operating rates, restricting their ability to pass on a sharp rise in power and fuel costs to consumers.Over the next two years, while cement capacities rise by 60 million tonne per annum (mtpa), demand will increase by a mere 30 mtpa. Operating rates of cement manufacturers will therefore plunge to around 72 per cent in 2012-13 from an already subdued 78 per cent in 2010-11. Cost of power and fuel, a major input for cement, will increase by around 18 per cent in 2011-12, given a steep increase in coal prices by the industry’s dominant supplier, Coal India Ltd. In addition, an increase in effective excise duty rates will lower cement manufacturers’ net price realisations by 2-4 per cent."The magnitude of the demand-supply imbalance and cost escalation will halve the cement industry’s EBITDA margins from the current 20 per cent to around 10 per cent in 2012-13 – the lowest level in the past 10 years," Prasad Koparkar, Head – Industry and Customised Research, CRISIL Research said. Small-sized cement manufacturers – with capacities of less than 2 mtpa – are likely to post losses of about 2 per cent at the EBITDA level in 2012-13. Large cement manufacturers – capacities of 10 mtpa or higher, however, will fare better than the industry average, with EBITDA margins of about 12 per cent.The key reasons for the better performance of large cement manufacturers will be their greater use of captive power and their inherent economies of scale. These companies meet three-fourth of their power requirements through captive generation. Small cement companies, in contrast, meet a mere 5 per cent of their power requirements through the captive route, and source the remainder from the more expensive grid power. "Captive power can make a critical difference to cement profitability," Ajay D’souza, Head, CRISIL Research explained. "Every 10 percentage point increase in captive power consumption can improve cement companies’ EBIT DA margins by 50 basis points."An expert from the industry however dismisses the fears and says that the environment is being painted gloomier than it actually is. "If you look at some established companies they have been doing well despite the hardships and constraints. We expect the agriculture sector to grow and with the good monsoons we have had so far, we are looking at greater rural demand – NREGA spending is up. In a bid to counter global slowdown the government is already planning to boost up internal spending on infrastructure."Sumit Banerjee, CEO, Reliance Cementation, has this to say on the scenario: "Cement sector is cyclical and what we are seeing today is hopefully the bottom of the cycle. The current imbalance in the demand-supply situation is temporary and that too regional in nature. While a near equilibrium exists between demand and supply in some regions, there is excess capacity in South. With consumption growth expected to remain under pressure on account of delays in infrastructure and reality projects, rising capital cost, etc. the average all India capacity utilisation level in FY 12 is expected to touch less then 75 per cent, lowest in the past decade, and then gradually climbing back to 77 per cent in FY 13 and more than 78 per cent in FY14. However, on a longer term basis, with a GDP growth back on track, and thrust on development of physical infrastructure, we expect the growth in cement demand to be robust at around 10% in future. Moreover, with fewer limestone deposits now available to support new plants, coupled with constraints of acquiring land and getting statutory approvals, capacity additions through new green field projects will also slacken in the coming few years. Together, both these factors are likely to result in shortening the down cycle time for the industry and 90 per cent capacity utilization level could be reached earlier than expected."On the drop of prices in the month of July he says, "The drop in cement prices in July is on expected lines due to onset of monsoon as there is an overall slowdown in construction activities. Prices are expected to remain under pressure until Oct 11 and thereafter we may see some upward correction."According to him the eastern and central regions are expected to show higher growth as compared to the other regions.Don’t call the doctor yet….Bleak as it looks, the industry has the capability to withstand the onslaught of varied negative factors and still come out a winner. Despite many analysts predicting dark days ahead for cement companies, shares of some of the larger companies have managed to hold their own while other sectors have dipped. Post the announcement of RBI on credit tightening, domestic benchmark indices have lost 12 per cent in value. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark Sensex lost 2,194.54 points, to close at 16,676.75 on August 30. But cement stocks have not only stood steady some of them have appreciated. At the time of going to press, UltraTech Cement had gained 7.1 per cent since then and Ambuja Cements was up by 1.4 per cent and ACC gained 0.4 per cent. While it may be true that the June quarter results may have something to do with their performance experts agree that it is definitely better than expected.True cement companies are facing problems that stretch from over-capacity, low price realisation to falling demand for building material, rising input costs, lack of major infrastructure projects and, a charge of cartelisation, but the days ahead still hold some hope. Comes the good news from some companies that dispatches are on the rise. Jaiprakash Associates has announced that its cement shipments in August rose 21 percent from a year earlier to 1.32 million tonne. ACC has announced that its production & despatch figures for the month of August 2011 recorded an increase in sales at 1.88 million tonne compared to 1.57 million tonne in the corresponding period. Also the production increased from 1.56 million tonne to 1.88 million tonne.With the monsoon coming to an end, demand is surely going to pick up soon. The government may also quick track many infrastructure projects to balance the global downgrade and help the economy and this also bodes well for the cement sector.10 Per cent growth, a possibilityWorldwide cement consumption is forecast to reach a record 3,859 million tonne in 2012, 17 per cent up from 2010 levels. Global cement consumption growth had slowed to 2.4 per cent in 2008, the crisis ridden year, recovered to 5.9 per cent in 2009 with volumes touching 2,998 million tonne and further to 3,294 million tonne in 2010, giving annual growth rate of 9.9 per cent. China dominates world cement statistics consuming 1,851 million tonne in 2010, almost double of 2004 levels, while India, the world’s second-largest consumer registered 212 million tonne in 2010. The United States, the third-largest consumer, saw demand fall down to 69 million tonne.What happened in India? The Indian cement industry sustained its growth rate even in the tough conditions of economic slowdown. According to FIRST Infocentre, the Indian cement industry witnessed tremendous growth on the back of continuously rising demand from the housing sector, increased activity in infrastructure, and construction boom. Recent industry developments and the government supportive policies are attracting global cement giants and sparking off a spate of mergers and acquisitions to spur growth. Numerous domestic and international cement companies are striving hard to establish their production base in the country.Majority of the cement companies expanded their installed capacity against the backdrop of government backed infrastructure construction projects as these projects created strong demand for cement. With the growth in real estate activities and boom in the development of infrastructure, cement industry was on a roll in India.Before venturing into forecast for 2012, it would be necessary to dwell into the base year, 2011. After growing by less than 5 per cent in 2010, cement consumption is projected to grow by 11 per cent to 240 million tonne in 2011.Cement consumption has a very strong correlation with the economic growth as construction activities pick-up with the rise income levels. Construction GDP is projected to grow 10 per cent.FIRST Infocentre provides three scenarios for cement consumption forecast for 2012 based on the correlation of past drivers, challenges, and opportunities for expansion;

• The worst-case scenario forecast pegs cement consumption growth at 8 per cent in 2012 if real GDP grows by 6.5 per cent and prices of fuel inputs rise faster than in 2011.
• The most likely scenario is around 10 per cent increase in cement consumption, wherein, the GDP will grow by 8 per cent and fuel costs move up moderately in line with the general inflation rate.
• The optimistic projection pegs consumption growth at 12.2 per cent, assuming GDP grows 9.5 per cent and fuel prices rise slower than the general inflation rate.

Thoroughly examining all emerging trends and drivers fueling growth in the cement industry, the regional cement demand-supply dynamics varies from state to state. The Twelfth Five Year Plan is expected to spend over US$1 trillion on infrastructure sector over the five year period beginning 2012-13. During the first year, more of spill over projects will be targeted for completion, along with the addition of new plan projects. This will boost demand for cement in states that attract more investment projects. For example, Orissa has been seeing number of projects increasing rapidly.Courtesy: FIRST Infocentre