The cement industry is responsible for 8 per cent of global CO2 emissions—a staggering figure that demands urgent action, particularly as 2024 marked the first year the planet surpassed the 1.5°C global warming limit. Recognising this critical juncture, the World Cement Association (WCA) has released a landmark White Paper, “Long-Term Forecast for Cement and Clinker Demand”, which projects a sharp decline in long-term cement and clinker demand. By 2050, annual clinker production is expected to fall below 1 Gt from its current level of 2.4 Gt, with far-reaching implications for global carbon emissions and the viability of carbon capture projects.
WCA CEO Ian Riley underscores the complexity of this challenge:
“Carbon capture remains a vital tool for tackling emissions in hard-to-abate sectors like cement. However, flawed demand assumptions and the fragmented nature of cement production globally could undermine the feasibility of such projects. Industry stakeholders must rethink their strategies and embrace innovative, sustainable practices to achieve meaningful emissions reductions.”
Key Findings from the WCA White Paper
The WCA White Paper provides a comprehensive roadmap for the industry’s decarbonisation journey, highlighting the following critical insights:
1. Declining Cement and Clinker Demand: Global cement demand is expected to drop to approximately 3 billion tonnes annually by 2050, while clinker demand could decline even more steeply, reaching just 1.5 billion tonnes annually.
2. Implications for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): With reduced clinker production, the need for CCS is expected to decline, necessitating a shift in investment and policy priorities.
3. Alternative Materials and Clinker-Free Technologies: These innovations hold transformative potential for reshaping demand patterns and cutting emissions.
4. Supply Chain Optimisation: Enhancing logistics and reducing waste are key strategies for adapting to evolving market dynamics.
A Path to Lower Emissions
Clinker production, the largest source of CO2 emissions in cement manufacturing, generates one-third of emissions from fuel combustion and two-thirds from limestone decomposition. According to our white paper, transitioning to lower-carbon fuels could reduce specific fuel emissions per tonne of clinker by nearly 70% by 2050. Overall CO2 emissions from cement production are forecast to decline from 2.4 Gt in 2024 to less than 1 Gt by 2050, even before factoring in carbon capture technologies.
Ian Riley emphasised: “This white paper provides actionable insights to help the cement industry accelerate its decarbonisation journey. By prioritising innovation and collaboration, the industry can achieve substantial emissions reductions and align with global climate goals.”