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Core sectors output remain negative

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In December 2020, the eight core sectors output growth remained in a negative trajectory for the 10th successive month with a contraction of 1.3 per cent during the month compared with negative growth of 1.3 per cent during November 2020 and 3 per centin December 2019. There has been an upward revision in the core sector output growth in November from -2.6 per cent to -1.4 per cent.

Barring coal and electricity, all other components of the core index continue to show de-growth. The cumulative index of eight core sector during April ??December 2020 contracted by 10.1 per cent indicative of the adverse impact on industrial production during the lockdown period compared with the 0.6 per cent growth in the corresponding period of last year. Barring fertiliser, there was a broad based contraction across sectors during this period. Double digit decline in output during this period is recorded in natural gas, refinery, steel and cement.

Key highlights:

  • Coal production growth grew by 2.2 per cent in December 2020, which is the slowest in the last 5 months. Coal production has recorded positive growth which indicates revival in demand for power post easing in lockdown and resumption of industrial activities.

  • Crude Oil production has fallen by 3.6 per cent in December 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions/lockdown, nonavailability of drilling equipment and less than planned contribution from workover wells, drilling wells and old wells. The negative growth in crude oil production has sustained for nearly 3 years.

  • Natural gas production in the country fell by 7.1 per cent in December largely due to a fall in output of western offshore fields of private/JV companies. This is the 19th consecutive month of de-growth in natural gas production.

  • Refinery production has fallen by 2.7 per cent and fall in production has been narrowing with each passing month with the easing of restrictions and as the economy has been slowly reflating. There has also been an increase in refinery utilisation during December ??0 which is now 101 per cent and this can be ascribed to the increase in demand for petroleum products as there is an uptick in economic activities. The month of December 2020 saw growth in consumption of LPG 7.4 per cent, Petrol (MS) 9.3 per cent, Bitumen 20.9 per cent, Lubes & Greases 8.5 per cent, Light Diesel Oil (LDO) 87.4 per cent and products categorised under ??thers??8.4 per cent compared with December 19.

  • Fertilizer production has fallen by 2.9 per cent due to a high base effect and as the rabi sowing season almost comes to an end.

  • Output of steel sector has contracted for the second consecutive month by 2.7 per cent in December after registering three consecutive month of positive growth during Aug-October 2020. Low demand from automobile sector and high raw material costs and relatively muted construction activities in parts of the country must have weighed on the steel production.

  • Cement production fell to a 4-month low falling by 9.7 per cent in December 2020 compared with -7.3 per cent in November 2020 and 5.4 per cent in December 2019. The fall can be ascribed to muted construction activities.

  • Electricity production grew by 4.2 per cent in December 2020 compared with 3.5 per cent in November 2020 on account of further normalisation of economic activity.

CARE Ratings??View

Going ahead, the growth in the eight core sectors will be contingent upon the normalisation of economic activities and high base effect. The growth in industrial production is likely to be marginally positive but will be contingent on the growth in consumer durables segment.

Courtesy: CARE Ratings

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

The article is authored by Sushant Hede, Associate Economist with CARE Ratings. He can be contacted at: sushant.hede@careratings.com | +91-22-6837 4348.

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by CARE Ratings Limited. CARE Ratings has taken utmost care to ensure accuracy and objectivity while developing this report based on information available in public domain. However, neither the accuracy nor completeness of information contained in this report is guaranteed. CARE Ratings is not responsible for any errors or omissions in analysis / inferences / views or for results obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that CARE Ratings has no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report

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Concrete

Cement Makers’ Margins To Fall Rs 50-75 Per Tonne Amid West Asia Conflict

Crisil Sees Margins Easing Despite Steady Demand

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Crisil said operating margins of Indian cement manufacturers are expected to decline by Rs 50-75 per tonne (t) this fiscal to Rs 925-950 per t due to higher input costs triggered by the West Asia conflict. The analysis covered 18 cement companies accounting for nearly 90 per cent of India’s domestic cement capacity and noted margins had improved sharply to around Rs 1,000 per t in fiscal 2026.

Crisil noted that the reduction would be driven mainly by higher power and fuel costs, which account for about 30 per cent of total costs, as petcoke and imported coal prices have surged amid geopolitical uncertainties. Freight costs, which account for about a quarter of total costs, are also expected to remain elevated because of higher diesel prices. The impact on profitability is likely to be more pronounced in the first half of the fiscal year before easing commodity prices moderate cost pressures later.

The rating agency said steady domestic demand and strong balance sheets should keep credit profiles stable despite the moderation in margins. Green energy currently accounts for 35-40 per cent of the sector’s total electricity consumption and is expected to partly cushion higher energy costs. Operating cash flows are likely to remain resilient, supported by projected 6-7 per cent growth in cement demand this fiscal.

Crisil highlighted that demand growth will be driven primarily by infrastructure spending, which meets about one-third of sector consumption, and by a nearly 18 per cent higher budgetary allocation for core ministries that should support project execution. Weaker rural housing demand amid pressure on agricultural incomes from a possible below-average monsoon may be offset by improved urban housing demand supported by favourable home-loan rates and a strong pipeline of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana-Urban projects. Ongoing capacity additions will keep capital expenditure elevated and may lift net debt to EBITDA to between 1.2 and 1.4 times from around 1.0 time last fiscal, though ratios are expected to remain healthy.

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UltraTech Board Approves Rs 50 bn Fundraise Via NCDs

Company to issue half a million debentures for expansion plan

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UltraTech Cement’s board of directors has approved raising Rs 5,000 crore (Rs 50 bn) through non?convertible debentures issued in rupees.

The finance committee cleared a proposal to issue up to 500,000 fully paid, unsecured, listed, rated, redeemable, rupee?denominated, non?convertible, non?cumulative debentures of Rs 1 lakh each (Rs 0.1 mn each), aggregating to the Rs 5,000 crore programme.

As of June 2026 the firm reported net debt of Rs 15,875 crore (Rs 158.75 bn) and said its capacity expansion projects under execution are backed by capital expenditure of about Rs 17,000 crore (Rs 170 bn) over the next two to two?and?a?half years.

UltraTech spent Rs 9,500 crore (Rs 95 bn) on capital expenditure in financial year 2026 and in April the group crossed 200.1 mn tonnes per annum of domestic grey cement capacity and 205.5 mn tonnes per annum of global capacity.

The chief financial officer indicated the company would take consolidated capacity beyond 242 mn tonnes per annum, with grey cement capacity reaching 212.7 mn tonnes per annum by the end of financial year 2027. He noted the net debt?to?earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ratio stood at 0.87 times as of June 2026 and the company was confident of ending financial year 2027 with the ratio below one time.

In the first quarter of financial year 2026?27 UltraTech’s net profit attributable to owners rose 16.8 per cent year?on?year to Rs 2,599.3 crore (Rs 25.993 bn) and revenue from operations increased 15.9 per cent to Rs 24,648.20 crore (Rs 246.482 bn). The board approval is expected to complement internal cash flows as the company advances its expansion programme.

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Lokesh Lays Stone For Rs 31 Billion Cement Unit In Kadapa

Line-2 expansion to make Kadapa a major cement hub

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Andhra Pradesh Education and IT Minister Nara Lokesh on Wednesday laid the foundation stone for the Line-2 expansion of Dalmia Bharat Cement at Chinnakomerla village in Mylavaram Mandal in Kadapa district. The project carries an investment of Rs 31 billion (bn) and is slated for completion by the third quarter of the financial year 2028. The expansion is intended to boost industrial growth and employment generation across the Rayalaseema region.

Once commissioned, the Kadapa facility will become Dalmia Bharat’s largest integrated cement manufacturing ecosystem in southern India, creating over 1,000 direct and indirect jobs and opening new business avenues for regional micro, small and medium enterprises and transport operators. Lokesh said the expansion signalled growing corporate confidence in the state and reflected the practical ease of doing business that secured repeat investment.

He placed the project within the government’s wider economic targets and recalled the Yuvagalam padayatra commitment to generate two million (mn) jobs within five years, noting that the state would cultivate talent while industry created opportunities. Lokesh highlighted Andhra Pradesh’s competitive pursuit of major manufacturing accounts, mentioning past successes and a personal initiative to engage global investors when persuading them to anchor expansion in the state.

The plant will leverage Kadapa’s abundant limestone reserves to scale production and sustainability. Clinker capacity is planned to rise from two point five million tonnes per annum (mn tpa) to six point one mn tpa, while overall cement output will increase from three point six mn tpa to nine point six mn tpa. The unit is designed to operate on over eighty per cent renewable energy and deploy waste heat recovery, zero liquid discharge, water recycling and advanced AI systems to optimise efficiency. Industries Minister TG Bharat, BC Welfare Minister S. Savitha and Jammalamadugu MLA C. Adinarayana Reddy attended the ceremony.

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