Cement companies’ operating profit for fiscal year 2026 (FY26) is projected to grow by 12–18 per cent, reaching Rs 900–950 per metric tonne (MT), supported by robust demand, improved realisations, and stable input costs, according to ratings agency Icra.
In FY25, operating profit before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (OPBIDTA) stood at Rs 806 per MT, declining 16 per cent year-on-year due to weak realisations amid an extended monsoon and subdued government capital expenditure during the general elections.
Icra’s sample covers ACC, Ambuja Cements, JK Cements, JK Lakshmi Cement, The Ramco Cements, UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, Birla Corporation, Shree Cement, Sagar Cements, and Heidelberg Cement India, which together account for 74 per cent of industry capacity.
The recent GST cut on cement is expected to lower rural housing construction costs by 0.8–1.0 per cent, boosting volumes and supporting additional capacity. Average cement realisations are expected to rise 3–5 per cent in FY26.
Cement volumes increased by 8.5 per cent in the first five months of FY26, driven by strong demand from housing and infrastructure projects, despite early monsoons in some regions. During this period, cement prices rose 7.4 per cent year-on-year, particularly in northern and eastern markets. Input costs, especially for pet coke and freight, remain sensitive to global crude price movements and geopolitical factors.
Anupama Reddy, vice-president and co-group head of corporate ratings at Icra, said: “With the GST rate cut from 28 per cent to 18 per cent expected to be passed on to consumers, the average retail price of cement, currently Rs 350–360 per bag, will offer savings of Rs 26–28 per bag. Driven by strong demand, capacity additions may rise to 41–43 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) in FY26 from 31 MMTPA in FY25, with the eastern region leading the growth in grinding capacity.”