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Tax cut impact

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In an effort to bring back the"animal spirit" to the stock market, the government on September 20, 2019 lowered corporate tax effectively by 10 percentage points for existing companies and 12 basis points for new companies. This is the fourth dose administered by the government to arrest the slowdown in the economy. Here are some of the observations as reported by the financial analysts.

Mining industry in India is still the highest taxed in the world despite the Government’s decision to slash corporate tax rate. Rajib Lochan Mohanty, Vice President, Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) said,"There was a need for rationalising the taxation structure in mining sector for sustainable development and deriving long-term benefits in terms of sustained raw material security for industries."

"The government needs to realise that the taxation regime for mining in India affects all downstream industries and employment opportunities in the economy, while fuelling the already skewed balance of payment through additional import of minerals," Mohanty said. Now, the effective tax rate in India works out to be 58 per cent for existing mines and 54 per cent for new mines granted through auction. These taxes include corporate tax, district mineral fund and national mineral exploration trust, he explained. All levies, payments to the government make domestic raw materials costly, resulting in costlier finished products in the economy and leading to import and reduced gross domestic product in mining, he said.

Mohanty further said many of the existing private non-captive working mines will expire in March next year and it is apprehended that such blocks may not resume operations in next two-three years even after their successful auction. This Federation earnestly requests that the tenure of the non-captive mining leases (merchant mines) be extended till March 31, 2030. There have been job losses of 12.8 lakh people – both direct and indirect – in mining sector in Goa and Karnataka due to ineffective regulatory mechanism and subsequent adverse decisions by Supreme Court.

Road construction to drop
The scenario for cement companies has not been good for quite some time now. The news of tax cut brought some cheers for the cement players. Economic Times Intelligence Group is of the view that the mid-and-small-cap companies, which are in the tax bracket of 31-42 per cent as of FY19, will have a saving to the tune of 6-17 per cent. The tax cut has been joyously welcomed by this cement sector and its investors who had a long waiting.

Generally as a rule of thumb, infrastructure consumes up to 20-25 per cent of cement, while real estate consumes around 65-75 per cent of cement. For the last three years, the government spending on infrastructure projects has been growing at a little over 20 per cent year on year comparison, but now it is going to fall below 20 percent for the year 2020.

According to a CARE Ratings estimate, the pace of road construction is expected to drop to 26-27 km per day in FY20 due to limited budgetary support, risk aversion among public sector banks to fund infrastructure and high cost of land acquisition are main reasons. In FY19, national highways construction rate had improved to around 30 km per day.The housing sector in urban and rural areas is not picking up to make up the loss arising in infrastructure sector.

Boost from lower tax outgo
Earnings growth for India Inc, which has been on first gear in recent times, is all set to receive a boost from lower tax outgo, with the reduced corporate tax rates. For many manufacturing companies, the savings on this front could give them room to reduce prices or improve other spends, thereby spurring demand. Many companies in sectors such as infrastructure, capital goods and FMCG stand to gain. Some others in the auto, steel, oil and gas, and real-estate segments could also get a leg-up. IT companies may be better off under the current regime though, given the lower tax incidence at present, says a report from Business Line.

Providing near-term boost
Indian Railways has been generous is passing on concessions to cement industry. From October-June, the cement companies need not pay 15 per cent busy season surcharge for transportation of cement and also done away with 5 per cent freight charges on loading mini rakes.

"Considering the current base rate of Rs 727/tonne per 500 km and railway freight proportion of 30 per cent cement industry would be saving approximately over Rs 600 crore in the second half of the year 2020," said Binod Modi, an analyst at Reliance Securities. The numbers will be different for different cement companies. Among pan-India cement makers, ACC is likely to benefit the most, given its higher dependence on the Railways. Analysts at Edelweiss Securities estimate Rs 30/tonne cost savings for the sector.

In response to the tax cuts, analysts have upgraded their earnings per share (EPS) target for cement manufacturers. The main contributors like demand and price have still not been addressed in that case the picture may not improve much. The overall capacity utilisation of the industry would remain below 70 per cent in the near term.

Big cos. to benefit
Full tax-paying companies such as UltraTech Cement, JK Cement and Orient Cement are likely to benefit the most. Still, the move is unlikely to have any impact on the capex cycle, as the sector is now cautious on capacity additions. Impact on working capital cycle, though positive, may not be material, according to UBS.

Infrastructure a cut in corporate tax is a positive for construction companies as most of them are paying full tax rate. All these companies will move to 25 percent tax regime, boosting their EPS by 7-12 per cent, according to Phillip Capital. Reduction in tax rate will also enhance cash flow, and hence ease the working capital situation, the brokerage said.

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Price hikes, drop in input costs help cement industry to post positive margins: Care Ratings

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Region-wise,the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by thenorthern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13%of the capacity, respectively.

The cement industry is expected to post positive margins on decent price hikes over the months, falling raw material prices and marked drop in overall production costs, said an analysis of Care Ratings.

Wholesale and retail prices of cement have increased 11.9% and 12.4%, respectively, in the current financial year. As whole prices have remained elevated in most of the markets in the months of FY20, against the corresponding period of the previous year.

Similarly, electricity and fuel cost have declined 11.9% during 9M FY20 due to drop in crude oil prices. Logistics costs, the biggest cost for cement industry, has also dropped 7.7% (selling and distribution) as the Railways extended the benefit of exemption from busy season surcharge. Moreover, the cost of raw materials, too, declined 5.1% given the price of limestone had fallen 11.3% in the same aforementioned period, the analysis said.

According to Care Ratings, though the overall sales revenue has increased only 1.3%, against 16% growth in the year-ago period, the overall expenditure has declined 3.2% which has benefited the industry largely given the moderation in sales.

Even though FY20 has been subdued in terms of production and demand, the fall in cost of production has still supported the cement industry by clocking in positive margins, the rating agency said.

Cement demand is closely linked to the overall economic growth, particularly the housing and infrastructure sector. The cement sector will be seeing a sharp growth in volumes mainly due to increasing demand from affordable housing and other government infrastructure projects like roads, metros, airports, irrigation.

The government’s newly introduced National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), with its target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025, is a detailed road map focused on economic revival through infrastructure development.

The NIP covers a gamut of sectors; rural and urban infrastructure and entails investments of Rs.102 lakh crore to be undertaken by the central government, state governments and the private sector. Of the total projects of the NIP, 42% are under implementation while 19% are under development, 31% are at the conceptual stage and 8% are yet to be classified.

The sectors that will be of focus will be roads, railways, power (renewable and conventional), irrigation and urban infrastructure. These sectors together account for 79% of the proposed investments in six years to 2025. Given the government’s thrust on infrastructure creation, it is likely to benefit the cement industry going forward.

Similarly, the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana, aimed at providing affordable housing, will be a strong driver to lift cement demand. Prices have started correcting Q4 FY20 onwards due to revival in demand of the commodity, the agency said in its analysis.

Industry’s sales revenue has grown at a CAGR of 7.3% during FY15-19 but has grown only 1.3% in the current financial year. Tepid demand throughout the country in the first half of the year has led to the contraction of sales revenue. Fall in the total expenditure of cement firms had aided in improving the operating profit and net profit margins of the industry (OPM was 15.2 during 9M FY19 and NPM was 3.1 during 9M FY19). Interest coverage ratio, too, has improved on an overall basis (ICR was 3.3 during 9M FY19).

According to Cement Manufacturers Association, India accounts for over 8% of the overall global installed capacity. Region-wise, the southern region comprises 35% of the total cement capacity, followed by the northern, eastern, western and central region comprising 20%, 18%, 14% and 13% of the capacity, respectively.

Installed capacity of domestic cement makers has increased at a CAGR of 4.9% during FY16-20. Manufacturers have been able to maintain a capacity utilisation rate above 65% in the past quinquennium. In the current financial year due to the prolonged rains in many parts of the country, the capacity utilisation rate has fallen from 70% during FY19 to 66% currently (YTD).

Source:moneycontrol.com

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Wonder Cement shows journey of cement with new campaign

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The campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV…

ETBrandEquity

Cement manufacturing company Wonder Cement, has announced the launch of a digital campaign ‘Har Raah Mein Wonder Hai’. The campaign has been designed specifically to run on platforms such as Instagram, Facebook and YouTube.

#HarRaahMeinWonderHai is a one-minute video, designed and conceptualised by its digital media partner Triature Digital Marketing and Technologies Pvt Ltd. The entire journey of the cement brand from leaving the factory, going through various weather conditions and witnessing the beauty of nature and wonders through the way until it reaches the destination i.e., to the consumer is very intriguing and the brand has tried to showcase the same with the film.

Sanjay Joshi, executive director, Wonder Cement, said, "Cement as a product poses a unique marketing challenge. Most consumers will build their homes once and therefore buy cement once in a lifetime. It is critical for a cement company to connect with their consumers emotionally. As a part of our communication strategy, it is our endeavor to reach out to a large audience of this country through digital. Wonder Cement always a pioneer in digital, with the launch of our IGTV campaign #HarRahMeinWonderHai, is the first brand in the cement category to venture into this space. Through this campaign, we have captured the emotional journey of a cement bag through its own perspective and depicted what it takes to lay the foundation of one’s dreams and turn them into reality."

The story begins with a family performing the bhoomi poojan of their new plot. It is the place where they are investing their life-long earnings; and planning to build a dream house for the family and children. The family believes in the tradition of having a ‘perfect shuruaat’ (perfect beginning) for their future dream house. The video later highlights the process of construction and in sequence it is emphasising the value of ‘Perfect Shuruaat’ through the eyes of a cement bag.

Tarun Singh Chauhan, management advisor and brand consultant, Wonder Cement, said, "Our objective with this campaign was to show that the cement produced at the Wonder Cement plant speaks for itself, its quality, trust and most of all perfection. The only way this was possible was to take the perspective of a cement bag and showing its journey of perfection from beginning till the end."

According to the company, the campaign also marks Wonder Cement being the first ever cement brand to enter the world of IGTV. No other brand in this category has created content specific to the platform.

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In spite of company’s optimism, demand weakness in cement is seen in the 4% y-o-y drop in sales volume. (Reuters)

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Cost cuts and better realizations save? the ?day ?for ?UltraTech Cement, Updated: 27 Jan 2020, Vatsala Kamat from Live Mint

Lower cost of energy and logistics helped Ebitda per tonne rise by about 29% in Q3
Premiumization of acquired brands, synergistic?operations hold promise for future profit growth Topics

UltraTech Cement
India’s largest cement producer UltraTech Cement Ltd turned out a bittersweet show in the December quarter. A sharp drop in fuel costs and higher realizations helped drive profit growth. But the inherent demand weakness was evident in the sales volumes drop during the quarter.

Better realizations during the December quarter, in spite of the 4% year-on-year volume decline, minimized the pain. Net stand-alone revenue fell by 2.6% to ?9,981.8 crore.

But as pointed out earlier, lower costs on most fronts helped profitability. The chart alongside shows the sharp drop in energy costs led by lower petcoke prices, lower fuel consumption and higher use of green power. Logistics costs, too, fell due to lower railway freight charges and synergies from the acquired assets. These savings helped offset the increase in raw material costs.

The upshot: Q3 Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) of about ?990 per tonne was 29% higher from a year ago. The jump in profit on a per tonne basis was more or less along expected lines, given the increase in realizations. "Besides, the reduction in net debt by about ?2,000 crore is a key positive," said Binod Modi, analyst at Reliance Securities Ltd.

Graphic by Santosh Sharma/Mint
What also impressed analysts is the nimble-footed integration of the recently merged cement assets of Nathdwara and Century, which was a concern on the Street.

Kunal Shah, analyst (institutional equities) at Yes Securities (India) Ltd, said: "The company has proved its ability of asset integration. Century’s cement assets were ramped up to 79% capacity utilization in December, even as they operated Nathdwara generating an Ebitda of ?1,500 per tonne."

Looks like the demand weakness mirrored in weak sales during the quarter was masked by the deft integration and synergies derived from these acquired assets. This drove UltraTech’s stock up by 2.6% to ?4,643 after the Q3 results were declared on Friday.

Brand transition from Century to UltraTech, which is 55% complete, is likely to touch 80% by September 2020. A report by Jefferies India Pvt. Ltd highlights that the Ebitda per tonne for premium brands is about ?5-10 higher per bag than the average (A cement bag weighs 50kg). Of course, with competition increasing in the arena, it remains to be seen how brand premiumization in the cement industry will pan out. UltraTech Cement scores well among peers here.

However, there are road bumps ahead for the cement sector and for UltraTech. Falling gross domestic product growth, fiscal slippages and lower budgetary allocation to infrastructure sector are making industry houses jittery on growth. Although UltraTech’s management is confident that cement demand is looking up, sustainability and pricing power remains a worry for the near term.

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