The onset of the south-west monsoon, which began on June 1, 2018 has reached the eastern regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan, states a report from CARE Ratings. The regions of Bihar and Eastern Uttar Pradesh recorded a deficient rainfall while, the regions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh that were largely affected by the drought conditions in 2014, have received normal rainfall, cumulatively. As a whole, the country recorded normal rainfall.
The week of June 21 to June 27, 2018, recorded a cumulative rainfall of 41.5 mm, which is at a approximately 16 per cent departure from normal rainfall. For the season beginning from June 1, 2018 the cumulative rainfall up to June 27, 2018 records a 10 per cent departure from normal.
Table 1 reveals that out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions in India, 24 sub-divisions recorded excess to normal rainfall which is approximately in line with the number of regions in 2016 and 2017. Amongst the six regions receiving excess rainfall Punjab and the Konkan and Goa recorded rainfall in excess of around 50 per cent from normal cumulatively.
Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu was the only sub-division with largely deficient rainfall, recording a 93 per cent departure from the normal rainfall of 72 mm.
Area under cultivation till June 27 was lower this year relative to last year.
It was lower in case of rice, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cotton. This needs to be monitored closely as there has been over-production of pulses in the last two years which led to a decline in prices and hence income for farmers.
The MSPs are yet to be announced which can cause a shift in cropping pattern in the coming weeks.
Cultivated area has been stable in case of sugarcane and jute.
Commentary
The southwest monsoons have advanced to the western belt of Gujarat and Rajasthan. The marginal rise in the area sown for sugarcane can be attributed to the excess rainfall recorded in the Marathwada region. The Saurashtra region having received deficient rainfall has possibly led to lower acreage of groundnut. The same goes with cultivation of cotton, which is another major crop grown in the Saurashtra region. Acreage for cotton fell by 16 per cent. Oilseeds acreage was also lower and can be a concern going ahead.
Table 1: Rainfall patterns: Number of Divisions (As of 27th June 2018)
| No. of Sub-Division with rainfall |
26-Jun-13 |
25-Jun-14 |
24-Jun-15 |
29-Jun-16 |
28-Jun-17 |
27-Jun-18 |
| Large Excess |
– |
– |
– |
– |
5 |
0 |
| Excess |
26 |
0 |
16 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
| Normal |
6 |
7 |
13 |
17 |
15 |
18 |
| Total |
32 |
7 |
29 |
23 |
28 |
24 |
| Deficient |
3 |
20 |
5 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
| Large Deficient |
– |
– |
– |
– |
0 |
1 |
| Scanty |
1 |
9 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
– |
| Total |
4 |
29 |
7 |
12 |
8 |
12 |
| TOTAL |
36 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
36 |