Faced with overcapacity, cement industry is likely to slow down expansion with 66 million tonne (mt) addition expected by 2015-16 amidst an expected surge in demand and price. Over the past few years, cement industry has witnessed huge capacity addition. The capacity has increased from 219 mt in FY’09 to 325 mt tonne in FY’13, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4 per cent.
Care Research, a unit of Care Rating on July 4 said that given huge surplus situation prevailing in the industry, the pace of capacity addition would decelerate going ahead. Cement makers would add capacity of about 66 mt during the period of FY’14-16. On account of huge capacity addition, utilisation rate of the industry dropped from the peak of 93 per cent in FY’07 to 73 per cent in 2012-13.
Going forward, it will improve gradually given the slowdown in pace of capacity addition and gradual recovery in cement demand. The overall operating rate of the industry to increase to 76 per cent in FY’16, it said. The demand would improve on government’s increased focus on strengthening infrastructure, the promotion of affordable housing, lowering trend of interest rates and expected revival in the overall economic growth, it said.
Care Research said that given the recovery expected in demand, cement prices are expected to remain elevated in FY’14. However, the per tonne total expenditure of the industry is expected to rise by about 10 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, due to increase in power and fuel and freight costs.